Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-19 09:42:02 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.25 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -6.8% growth collapse · real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.51 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.62 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 6.13 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.6% stable, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; GEX positive at 5.8B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $769.54 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.38
QQQ: $717.77 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
IWM: $302.46 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.54
VIX: 15.41 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.647%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$769.54	77.22	54.4	$769.38	Neutral	1.01
QQQ	$717.77	74.80	61.2	$695.96	Neutral	1.27
IWM	$302.46	67.03	30.7	$299.54	Neutral	0.93

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.41	27.18	47.4	$11.07	Neutral	0.91
TNX	46.47	58.20	35.4	-	-	-
GLD	$408.94	70.30	29.9	$393.86	Bearish	0.17
DXY	98.95	30.94	36.4	-	-	-
SLV	$58.79	67.53	13.5	$43.00	Bearish	0.39

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.77B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 347
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	86.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	80.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	69.6%	0/0
Materials	69.2%	0/0
Financials	65.1%	0/0
Industrials	64.1%	0/0
Technology	53.7%	0/0
Real Estate	35.3%	0/0
Utilities	25.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.48 (5d: +4.0%)
Brent Crude: $91.44 | Spread: $6.96
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.14/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $64.03
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.31

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.511	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.071	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.345	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.622	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 131,257.0
0DTE Put Volume: 163,960.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $22.7B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.54)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.65%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
DXY: 98.95
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,036B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,139 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.8% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (770.22) reclaimed ZGL (769.42) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (767.62) dropped below ZGL (769.42) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.38%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Indonesian Rupiah: Stability-focused BI stance - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-stability-focused-bi-stance-uob-202608191325 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 13:25:06 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Ex-president warns Iran against losing 'unprecedented' opportunity with Trump Time: 2026-08-19T13:28:53.408Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 172 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily — 10.0% of normal
Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 320
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS275 (+450% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost