Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-19 06:01:14 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 62% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -4.9% growth pessimism · real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.51 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.62 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.86 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 81/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 81 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; GEX positive at 5.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $767.52 | 50 SMA $749.24 | 200 SMA $705.88 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.97
QQQ: $717.41 | 50 SMA $712.74 | 200 SMA $651.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.9
IWM: $300.22 | 50 SMA $295.34 | 200 SMA $268.83 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $276.0
VIX: 15.84 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.706%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$767.52	70.94	52.4	$747.97	Bearish	1.80
QQQ	$717.41	73.88	57.7	$695.90	Bearish	2.43
IWM	$300.22	65.18	26.7	$276.00	Bearish	1.82

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.84	37.78	46.1	$10.50	Bearish	1.79
TNX	47.06	61.72	39.1	-	-	-
GLD	$398.00	78.92	27.5	$381.68	Neutral	0.64
DXY	99.64	29.82	27.4	-	-	-
SLV	$57.28	77.89	11.2	$40.00	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.77B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 380
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	87.2%	0/0
Communication Services	82.4%	0/0
Financials	76.6%	0/0
Consumer Staples	72.7%	0/0
Materials	57.9%	0/0
Industrials	56.0%	0/0
Technology	55.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	51.2%	0/0
Real Estate	25.0%	0/0
Utilities	16.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.49 (5d: +1.5%)
Brent Crude: $91.35 | Spread: $6.86
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.11/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.68
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.10

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.511	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.068	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.352	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.624	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,836,760.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,740,428.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.52)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.71%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.64
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,036B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,372 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.36%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Australian Dollar: RBA seen sidelined on softer wages - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-seen-sidelined-on-softer-wages-bbh-202608190949 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:49:41 GMT

[2] Euro steadies against Japanese Yen as ECB, BoJ rate-hike bets collide URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-against-japanese-yen-as-ecb-boj-rate-hike-bets-collide-202608190948 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:48:58 GMT

[3] USD/JPY remains range-bound: What comes next? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-remains-range-bound-what-comes-next-202608190944 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:44:09 GMT

[4] Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 3.26% from previous 3.13% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-10-y-bond-auction-increased-to-326-from-previous-313-202608190943 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:43:38 GMT

[5] Brazilian Real: Election risks then renewed gains - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-election-risks-then-renewed-gains-commerzbank-202608190939 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:39:25 GMT

[6] Euro extends gains against British Pound as Eurozone inflation accelerates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-extends-gains-against-british-pound-as-eurozone-inflation-accelerates-202608190936 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:36:53 GMT

[7] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608190930 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:30:50 GMT

[8] United Kingdom: Upside risks building for inflation - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-upside-risks-building-for-inflation-deutsche-bank-202608190929 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:29:24 GMT

[9] Risk sentiment fades as Nasdaq breaks lower URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/risk-sentiment-fades-as-nasdaq-breaks-lower-202608190925 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:25:39 GMT

[10] Why the Fed-BoJ policy divergence may not save the Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/why-the-fed-boj-policy-divergence-may-not-save-the-yen-202608190923 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:23:21 GMT

[11] BTC is range-bound, shrugging off the weakness in equities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/btc-is-range-bound-shrugging-off-the-weakness-in-equities-202608190921 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:21:02 GMT

[12] Euro remains stronger following July's Eurozone HICP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-stronger-following-julys-eurozone-hicp-data-202608190915 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:15:50 GMT

[13] Copper: LME stock jump eases supply squeeze - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-lme-stock-jump-eases-supply-squeeze-ing-202608190915 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:15:42 GMT

[14] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (2.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-came-in-at-02-below-forecasts-28-in-july-202608190907 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:07:48 GMT

[15] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-29-in-july-202608190901 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:01:45 GMT

[16] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (2.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-came-in-at-0-below-expectations-28-in-july-202608190901 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:01:15 GMT

[17] US Dollar: Higher yields threaten housing and risk sentiment - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-higher-yields-threaten-housing-and-risk-sentiment-mufg-202608190900 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:00:50 GMT

[18] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.5%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-meets-forecasts-25-in-july-202608190900 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:00:28 GMT

[19] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0% (July) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-0-july-202608190900 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:00:04 GMT

[20] Japanese Yen: BoJ's hawkish pivot reshapes outlook against US Dollar - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bojs-hawkish-pivot-reshapes-outlook-against-us-dollar-standard-chartered-202608190849 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:49:16 GMT

[21] Pump.fun Price Forecast: Bullish signs support long-term upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pumpfun-price-forecast-bullish-signs-support-long-term-upside-202608190839 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:39:53 GMT

[22] UK inflation rise driven by energy shock from Iran war - BoE hold expected for rest of year URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/uk-inflation-rise-driven-by-energy-shock-from-iran-war-boe-hold-expected-for-rest-of-year-202608190834 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:34:54 GMT

[23] The commodities feed: Oil rises amid US-Iran conflict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-rises-amid-us-iran-conflict-202608190832 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:32:39 GMT

[24] United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.7% to 2% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-dclg-house-price-index-yoy-dipped-from-previous-27-to-2-in-june-202608190831 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:31:29 GMT

[25] Swiss Franc picks up within range, USDollar softens awaiting Fed minutes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-picks-up-within-range-usdollar-softens-awaiting-fed-minutes-202608190831 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:31:13 GMT

[26] Indian Rupee: Range-bound with RBI support against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-range-bound-with-rbi-support-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202608190828 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:28:48 GMT

[27] Short term sell signals for Gold and Silver [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/short-term-sell-signals-for-gold-and-silver-video-202608190823 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:23:55 GMT

[28] Gold: Pullback risk with higher yields and Oil - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-pullback-risk-with-higher-yields-and-oil-ocbc-202608190820 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:20:11 GMT

[29] Dow Jones futures pause as tech sell-off, oil pressures weigh on sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-pause-as-tech-sell-off-oil-pressures-weigh-on-sentiment-202608190818 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:18:22 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] US carrier moves toward Middle East through Asian strait Time: 2026-08-19T09:58:21.255Z

[2] NATO ready to address any Iranian threat Time: 2026-08-19T09:26:57.777Z

[3] Iranian MP says foreign infiltration caused major damage during wars Time: 2026-08-19T08:55:34.743Z

[4] Iran and Oman to announce new passage through Hormuz, lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-19T08:02:02.843Z

[5] Iranian MP says 40% of Strait of Hormuz revenue would go to armed forces Time: 2026-08-19T08:01:18.858Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 172 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 7 of 60 normal daily — 11.7% of normal
Throughput: 11.9% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost