Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-19 02:01:28 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.9% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.51 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.62 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.86 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 81/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 81 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; GEX positive at 5.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.52 | 50 SMA $749.24 | 200 SMA $705.88 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.97
- QQQ: $717.41 | 50 SMA $712.74 | 200 SMA $651.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.9
- IWM: $300.22 | 50 SMA $295.34 | 200 SMA $268.83 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $276.0
- VIX: 15.84 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.706%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.52 | 70.94 | 52.4 | $747.97 | Bearish | 1.80 |
| QQQ | $717.41 | 73.88 | 57.7 | $695.90 | Bearish | 2.43 |
| IWM | $300.22 | 65.18 | 26.7 | $276.00 | Bearish | 1.82 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.84 | 37.78 | 46.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.79 |
| TNX | 47.06 | 61.72 | 39.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.00 | 78.92 | 27.5 | $381.68 | Neutral | 0.64 |
| DXY | 99.64 | 29.82 | 27.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.28 | 77.89 | 11.2 | $40.00 | Bearish | 0.41 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.77B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 380
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 87.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 82.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 76.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 51.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.49 (5d: +1.5%)
- Brent Crude: $91.35 | Spread: $6.86
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.11/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.10
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.511 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.068 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.352 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.624 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,836,760.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,740,428.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.52)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.71%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.64
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,036B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,196 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.36%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (27):
[1] United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-price-index-mom-climbed-from-previous-03-to-06-in-july-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:38 GMT
[2] United Kingdom PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a climbed from previous 2.6% to 2.8% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-ppi-core-output-yoy-nsa-climbed-from-previous-26-to-28-in-july-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:38 GMT
[3] United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a meets forecasts (0.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-producer-price-index-output-mom-nsa-meets-forecasts-02-in-july-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:38 GMT
[4] United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-32-in-july-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:12 GMT
[5] United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a below forecasts (3.2%) in July: Actual (3.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-producer-price-index-output-yoy-nsa-below-forecasts-32-in-july-actual-31-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:12 GMT
[6] United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.5%) in July: Actual (2.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-core-consumer-price-index-yoy-above-expectations-25-in-july-actual-26-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:12 GMT
[7] United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-price-index-mom-meets-expectations-03-in-july-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:12 GMT
[8] United Kingdom PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a rose from previous 0.5% to 0.6% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-ppi-core-output-mom-nsa-rose-from-previous-05-to-06-in-july-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:12 GMT
[9] United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a below forecasts (6.6%) in July: Actual (4.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-producer-price-index-input-yoy-nsa-below-forecasts-66-in-july-actual-49-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:11 GMT
[10] United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a below expectations (0%) in July: Actual (-1.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-producer-price-index-input-mom-nsa-below-expectations-0-in-july-actual-17-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:11 GMT
[11] United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-29-in-july-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:10 GMT
[12] USD/IDR Price Forecast: Trades near 17,850 after pulling back from moving averages URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-idr-price-forecast-trades-near-17-850-after-pulling-back-from-moving-averages-202608190600 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 06:00:00 GMT
[13] First Hormuz vessel strike in ten days URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/first-hormuz-vessel-strike-in-ten-days-202608190554 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 05:54:43 GMT
[14] Indian Rupee holds onto two-week losses against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-holds-onto-two-week-losses-against-us-dollar-202608190531 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 05:31:26 GMT
[15] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 1.1550, bullish outlook remains intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-gathers-strength-above-11550-bullish-outlook-remains-intact-202608190520 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 05:20:08 GMT
[16] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608190505 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 05:05:09 GMT
[17] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608190500 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 05:00:08 GMT
[18] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608190455 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:55:04 GMT
[19] Swiss Franc strengthens as US Dollar falls on fading Fed rate hike expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-strengthens-as-us-dollar-falls-on-fading-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202608190451 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:51:47 GMT
[20] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608190446 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:46:35 GMT
[21] WTI Price Forecast: Sits near three-week high, below $85.00 as bulls eye 100-SMA breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-sits-near-three-week-high-below-8500-as-bulls-eye-100-sma-breakout-202608190445 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:45:53 GMT
[22] Silver Elliott Wave perspective: Higher extension to finalize impulse [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/silver-elliott-wave-perspective-higher-extension-to-finalize-impulse-video-202608190442 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:42:09 GMT
[23] Shiba Inu Price Forecast: SHIB recovery hinges on key support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-price-forecast-shib-recovery-hinges-on-key-support-202608190438 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:38:55 GMT
[24] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608190435 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:35:45 GMT
[25] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608190430 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:30:13 GMT
[26] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens to near 184.50, mildly bearish bias persists under 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-softens-to-near-18450-mildly-bearish-bias-persists-under-100-day-sma-202608190425 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:25:45 GMT
[27] Canadian Dollar strengthens as Trump pauses 50% tariffs and USD slides before FOMC Minutes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-strengthens-as-trump-pauses-50-tariffs-and-usd-slides-before-fomc-minutes-202608190403 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:03:56 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran government official says infiltration bill violates constitution Time: 2026-08-19T05:19:48.827Z
[2] Ghalibaf says he will represent Iran's Supreme Leader at ceremony in Iraq Time: 2026-08-19T05:02:26.166Z
[3] Seized UAE tanker heads to Iran's Bandar Abbas - IRGC media Time: 2026-08-19T04:43:45.183Z
[4] Iran envoy calls Ukrainian attack on ship in Caspian Sea 'terrorist act' Time: 2026-08-19T04:23:15.633Z
[5] Six commodity vessels cross Strait of Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-08-19T04:06:42.810Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 172 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost