Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 21:45:07 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.442 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.9% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.15 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.66 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.86 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 81/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 81 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.442 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.8B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.52 | 50 SMA $749.24 | 200 SMA $705.88 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.97
- QQQ: $717.41 | 50 SMA $712.74 | 200 SMA $651.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.9
- IWM: $300.22 | 50 SMA $295.34 | 200 SMA $268.83 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $276.0
- VIX: 15.84 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.706%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.52 | 70.94 | 52.4 | $747.97 | Bearish | 1.80 |
| QQQ | $717.41 | 73.88 | 57.7 | $695.90 | Bearish | 2.43 |
| IWM | $300.22 | 65.18 | 26.7 | $276.00 | Bearish | 1.82 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.84 | 37.78 | 46.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.79 |
| TNX | 47.06 | 61.72 | 39.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.00 | 78.92 | 27.5 | $381.68 | Neutral | 0.64 |
| DXY | 99.64 | 29.82 | 27.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.28 | 77.89 | 11.2 | $40.00 | Bearish | 0.41 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.77B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 380
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 87.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 82.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 76.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 51.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.49 (5d: +1.5%)
- Brent Crude: $91.35 | Spread: $6.86
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.11/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.10
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.572 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.154 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.402 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.663 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,836,760.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,740,428.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.52)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.71%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.64
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,036B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,698 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.442 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] Screener: 7 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-18 β NDSN (conviction 72/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=2018)); WCC (conviction 72/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); IBKR (conviction 72/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); AVNT (conviction 69/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); GRMN (conviction 69/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); URI (conviction 66/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); RYN (conviction 63/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: 640 name(s) exited the program (955 exit event(s)) in the trailing 7d (2026-08-12 β 2026-08-18). Reasons: decayed 785, s2_evicted 148, tier_drop 21, horizon_elapsed 1. 649 never ripened, 0 unclassified.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.36%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Australian Dollar reverses as Iran risks lift USD ahead of Fed minutes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-reverses-as-iran-risks-lift-usd-ahead-of-fed-minutes-202608182353 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 23:53:01 GMT
[2] Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 16.9% above expectations (10.8%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-machinery-orders-yoy-registered-at-169-above-expectations-108-in-june-202608182350 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 23:50:02 GMT
[3] Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) above expectations (7.8%) in June: Actual (9.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-machinery-orders-mom-above-expectations-78-in-june-actual-97-202608182350 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 23:50:01 GMT
[4] Trump, Carney hold last-minute talks ahead of new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/trump-carney-hold-last-minute-talks-ahead-of-new-50-tariffs-on-canadian-goods-202608182340 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 23:40:17 GMT
[5] Gold steadies below $4,350 as surging yields offset support from Fed rate-hold bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-below-4-350-as-surging-yields-offset-support-from-fed-rate-hold-bets-202608182325 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 23:25:00 GMT
[6] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: SMAs confluence blocks bulls near 185.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-smas-confluence-blocks-bulls-near-18500-202608182310 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 23:10:26 GMT
[7] The Japanese Yen gives back half a record intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-gives-back-half-a-record-intervention-202608182303 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 23:03:37 GMT
[8] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls stall near 216.00 as RSI flattens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-stall-near-21600-as-rsi-flattens-202608182251 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 22:51:20 GMT
[9] New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) above expectations (0.8%) in 2Q: Actual (1.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-producer-price-index-output-qoq-above-expectations-08-in-2q-actual-16-202608182245 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 22:45:05 GMT
[10] New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) registered at 2.9% above expectations (1.3%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-producer-price-index-input-qoq-registered-at-29-above-expectations-13-in-2q-202608182245 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 22:45:04 GMT
[11] British Pound Sterling's three-month high was made in America URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterlings-three-month-high-was-made-in-america-202608182233 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 22:33:28 GMT
[12] New Zealand Dollar holds steady amid a firm US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-steady-amid-a-firm-us-dollar-202608182230 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 22:30:22 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iraq approves new mechanisms to diversify crude oil exports Time: 2026-08-18T23:20:02.826Z
[2] Iran official says country will not yield to pressure, threats Time: 2026-08-18T22:26:33.022Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 1.4% of normal
- Throughput: 6.3% of normal (0.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS245 (+390% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost