Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 12:11:14 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.38 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 64% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -4.7% growth pessimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.15 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.99 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 64% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Regime: low — Calm regime — balanced board
Longs: KHC, PFE, FSLR
Shorts: WTW, VLY

Track Record

AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
Screener Board Record: 204 closed (hit rate 45%) · 157 open

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $768.59 | 50 SMA $749.24 | 200 SMA $705.88 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $773.84
QQQ: $719.17 | 50 SMA $712.74 | 200 SMA $651.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $726.99
IWM: $301.17 | 50 SMA $295.34 | 200 SMA $268.83 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.57
VIX: 15.69 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.714%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$768.59	70.94	52.4	$773.84	Bearish	1.57
QQQ	$719.17	73.88	57.7	$726.99	Bearish	2.20
IWM	$301.17	65.18	26.7	$297.57	Bearish	1.54

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.69	37.78	46.1	$11.05	Neutral	1.46
TNX	47.14	61.72	39.1	-	-	-
GLD	$400.67	78.92	27.5	$379.30	Neutral	0.53
DXY	99.60	29.33	27.3	-	-	-
SLV	$57.91	77.89	11.2	$41.00	Bearish	0.39

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.7%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 376
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	81.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.6%	0/0
Financials	77.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	73.1%	0/0
Materials	64.7%	0/0
Industrials	60.5%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	54.5%	0/0
Technology	52.6%	0/0
Utilities	36.4%	0/0
Real Estate	28.6%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.64 (5d: +1.6%)
Brent Crude: $91.54 | Spread: $6.90
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.40/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.43
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.569	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.147	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.419	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.672	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,372,792.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,893,826.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $251.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $768.59)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.71%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
DXY: 99.60
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,846 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.475, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 64%.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (64% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-OFF to RISK-ON.
[WARNING] SPY (768.12) dropped below ZGL (773.27) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (768.24) reclaimed ZGL (748.00) — volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.37%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Colombia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to 3.5% in 2Q from previous 2.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/colombia-gross-domestic-product-yoy-up-to-35-in-2q-from-previous-22-202608181559 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 15:59:52 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Trump told team to hold off Iran talks until Tehran ready to make a deal - Al Jazeera Time: 2026-08-18T15:47:53.392Z

[2] Qatar says invitation remains open for Iran to review pilot search operation Time: 2026-08-18T15:35:48.971Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 128
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost