Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 11:35:33 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 38% (3 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.47 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 0% — narrow participation, rally is fragile
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -5.9% growth collapse · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.15 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.99 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: SPY weak but gamma, energy, and inflation flash bullish inside risk-off — 5 structural signals diverge. Possible bottoming setup.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF — breadth at 0% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 0% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $767.88 | 50 SMA $749.24 | 200 SMA $705.88 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $773.26
QQQ: $717.75 | 50 SMA $712.74 | 200 SMA $651.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.91
IWM: $301.13 | 50 SMA $295.34 | 200 SMA $268.83 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.58
VIX: 15.89 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.720%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$767.88	70.94	52.4	$773.26	Bearish	1.58
QQQ	$717.75	73.88	57.7	$695.91	Bearish	2.32
IWM	$301.13	65.18	26.7	$297.58	Bearish	1.53

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.89	37.78	46.1	$11.05	Neutral	1.42
TNX	47.20	61.72	39.1	-	-	-
GLD	$399.83	78.92	27.5	$379.30	Neutral	0.57
DXY	99.64	24.68	29.9	-	-	-
SLV	$57.55	77.89	11.2	$41.00	Bearish	0.38

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 0.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 100.0%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 1
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	80.4%	0/0
Communication Services	76.5%	0/0
Financials	71.6%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Industrials	67.7%	0/0
Technology	62.5%	0/0
Consumer Staples	57.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	54.2%	0/0
Real Estate	23.1%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.79 (5d: +1.8%)
Brent Crude: $91.77 | Spread: $6.98
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.83/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.49
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.93

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.573	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.149	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.419	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.673	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,133,421.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,665,865.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.47 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $215.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.88)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers · breadth 0%)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.72%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
DXY: 99.64
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,097 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[CRITICAL] Just 0% above 50d SMA — breadth collapse, broad selling.
[WARNING] Only 0% of S&P 500 above 50d SMA — narrow market.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.9% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] SPY (768.01) dropped below ZGL (773.81) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (767.68) reclaimed ZGL (747.99) — volatility dampening resumes.
[INFO] Screener: NET — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 60/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3888)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.37%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] UAE says situation safe after earlier missile threat alert Time: 2026-08-18T15:28:21.325Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 2.0% of normal
Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 370
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost