Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 10:39:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 38% (3 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.47 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 0% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -5.9% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 138 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.02 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: SPY weak but gamma, energy, and inflation flash bullish inside risk-off β 5 structural signals diverge. Possible bottoming setup.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF β breadth at 0% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 0% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $768.98 | 50 SMA $749.24 | 200 SMA $705.88 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $773.69
- QQQ: $719.43 | 50 SMA $712.74 | 200 SMA $651.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $727.41
- IWM: $302.01 | 50 SMA $295.34 | 200 SMA $268.83 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.57
- VIX: 15.64 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.712%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $768.98 | 70.94 | 52.4 | $773.69 | Neutral | 1.42 |
| QQQ | $719.43 | 73.88 | 57.7 | $727.41 | Bearish | 2.11 |
| IWM | $302.01 | 65.18 | 26.7 | $297.57 | Neutral | 1.34 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.64 | 37.78 | 46.1 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| TNX | 47.12 | 61.72 | 39.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.39 | 78.92 | 27.5 | $379.02 | Bearish | 0.45 |
| DXY | 99.56 | 20.71 | 36.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.32 | 77.89 | 11.2 | $42.00 | Bearish | 0.37 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 0.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 100.0%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 1
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 80.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 76.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $83.97 (5d: +0.8%)
- Brent Crude: $90.79 | Spread: $6.82
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.39/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.28
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.85
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.569 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.138 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.417 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.667 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 689,992.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,011,937.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.47 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $130.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $768.98)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· breadth 0%)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.71%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.56
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,097 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.0 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [CRITICAL] Just 0% above 50d SMA β breadth collapse, broad selling.
- [WARNING] Only 0% of S&P 500 above 50d SMA β narrow market.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.9% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (768.98) dropped below ZGL (773.69) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: NET β promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 60/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3888)).
- [INFO] Screener: TTC β promotion-ready (26d on list, HIGH conviction 64/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1995)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] Canadian Dollar: Further gains eye 1.35-1.37 against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-further-gains-eye-135-137-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202608181406 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 14:06:30 GMT
[2] Ethereum's next upgrade breaks the '21,000 gas' rule wallets rely on URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereums-next-upgrade-breaks-the-21-000-gas-rule-wallets-rely-on-202608181403 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 14:03:57 GMT
[3] United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous -0.3% to -2.2% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-pending-home-sales-yoy-fell-from-previous-03-to-22-in-july-202608181401 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 14:01:06 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost