Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-17 12:37:22 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.36 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +15.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -6.2% growth collapse · real yield 2.39% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.13 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.26 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 15.2B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $775.14 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.98
QQQ: $732.39 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.94
IWM: $304.19 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.54
VIX: 15.06 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$775.14	75.15	55.5	$755.98	Neutral	0.98
QQQ	$732.39	70.52	60.4	$718.94	Neutral	0.53
IWM	$304.19	67.58	27.3	$297.54	Neutral	0.80

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.06	31.40	50.9	$11.22	Neutral	1.43
TNX	47.04	55.28	40.7	-	-	-
GLD	$405.94	71.08	27.5	$389.21	Bearish	0.27
DXY	99.48	23.63	30.4	-	-	-
SLV	$59.92	69.47	11.2	$46.00	Bearish	0.25

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 15.19B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.3%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 486
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Financials	81.8%	0/0
Health Care	79.2%	0/0
Communication Services	77.8%	0/0
Industrials	73.0%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Technology	68.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	60.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	57.6%	0/0
Real Estate	25.9%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.49 (5d: -0.8%)
Brent Crude: $88.86 | Spread: $6.37
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.63/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.28
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.80

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.53	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.133	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.441	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.673	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.58
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,479,798.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,014,071.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.36 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $270.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $776 (Spot: $775.14)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
DXY: 99.48
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,129 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.3 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.2% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +15.2B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: DECK — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3661)).
[INFO] Screener: LHX — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3661)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.41%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (2):

[1] The US Dollar Index cannot rally with Washington on the offer URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-us-dollar-index-cannot-rally-with-washington-on-the-offer-202608171624 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 16:24:20 GMT

[2] The Dow Jones Industrial Average lets refiners price the war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-dow-jones-industrial-average-lets-refiners-price-the-war-202608171616 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 16:16:57 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] US condemns attack on Iraqi Kurdistan prime minister in Erbil Time: 2026-08-17T16:25:12.828Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 170 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 20.0% of normal
Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 449
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 23.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS220 (+340% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost