Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-17 09:54:03 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.54 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +15.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 70% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -5.6% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.39% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.13 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 138 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.04 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 15.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 70% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $775.65 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.98
- QQQ: $733.41 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $726.84
- IWM: $303.72 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.55
- VIX: 15.00 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.704%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $775.65 | 75.15 | 55.5 | $755.98 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| QQQ | $733.41 | 70.52 | 60.4 | $726.84 | Bearish | 0.48 |
| IWM | $303.72 | 67.58 | 27.3 | $297.55 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.00 | 31.40 | 50.9 | $11.24 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| TNX | 47.04 | 55.28 | 40.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $404.26 | 71.08 | 27.5 | $381.22 | Bearish | 0.35 |
| DXY | 99.46 | 23.51 | 30.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.28 | 69.47 | 11.2 | $44.00 | Bearish | 0.30 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 15.19B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 70.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 361
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 84.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 73.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 72.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 65.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 25.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.77 (5d: -0.5%)
- Brent Crude: $89.10 | Spread: $6.33
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.65/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.12
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.81
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.527 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.131 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.441 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.673 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.58
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 254,239.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 390,614.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.54 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $50.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $776 (Spot: $775.65)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.46
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,494 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.0 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.6% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +15.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 70%.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.42%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] TΓΌrkiye: From currency crisis to inflation culture URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/turkiye-from-currency-crisis-to-inflation-culture-202608171343 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:43:02 GMT
[2] Japanese Yen: Policy doubts weigh on Yen - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-doubts-weigh-on-yen-bny-202608171341 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:41:23 GMT
[3] Canadian Dollar firms after hotter-than-expected inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-firms-after-hotter-than-expected-inflation-data-202608171338 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:38:39 GMT
[4] Canadian Dollar struggles against Euro as inflation accelerates to 3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-struggles-against-euro-as-inflation-accelerates-to-3-202608171331 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:31:57 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 170 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 0.8% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 449
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 60.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS480 (+860% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost