Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-14 22:01:07 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 above 0.45 but falling — institutional buying fading, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +15.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 70% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -3.9% growth pessimism · real yield 2.39% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.14 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 15.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 70% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $776.01 | 50 SMA $748.48 | 200 SMA $705.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $776.15
QQQ: $731.00 | 50 SMA $713.21 | 200 SMA $650.11 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $731.0
IWM: $304.88 | 50 SMA $294.75 | 200 SMA $268.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $304.14
VIX: 14.25 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.696%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$776.01	76.79	56.6	$776.15	Neutral	1.25
QQQ	$731.00	69.87	63.3	$731.00	Bearish	1.60
IWM	$304.88	67.72	27.0	$304.14	Bearish	0.45

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.25	32.96	53.1	$11.23	Neutral	1.42
TNX	46.96 ▼	46.23	36.9	-	-	-
GLD	$401.98	71.17	30.6	$381.01	Neutral	0.59
DXY	99.64	23.78	30.6	-	-	-
SLV	$58.59	69.52	13.4	$44.00	Bearish	0.39

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 15.19B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 70.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 457
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.4%	0/0
Health Care	87.5%	0/0
Financials	84.6%	0/0
Communication Services	83.3%	0/0
Materials	81.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	79.3%	0/0
Industrials	70.7%	0/0
Technology	64.5%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.5%	0/0
Real Estate	42.3%	0/0
Utilities	26.9%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.40 (5d: +0.3%)
Brent Crude: $88.59 | Spread: $6.19
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.18/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.91
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.92

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.545	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.103	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.405	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.631	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.58
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,412,814.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,653,326.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $775 (Spot: $776.01)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.64
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,045B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,696B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,975 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +15.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 70%.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] Screener: FFIV — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 51% (n=6629)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: HOOD — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 63/100, regime capitulation, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 51% (n=6629)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: HPQ — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3661)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.42%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 167 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 0 of 60 normal daily — 0.0% of normal
Throughput: 0.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost