Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-14 15:07:59 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.471 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 71% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism · real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.11 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 134 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.13 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 16 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.471; GEX positive at 9.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 71% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $776.00 | 50 SMA $748.48 | 200 SMA $705.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $774.04
QQQ: $729.48 | 50 SMA $713.21 | 200 SMA $650.11 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $727.01
IWM: $304.38 | 50 SMA $294.75 | 200 SMA $268.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $302.77
VIX: 14.42 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.696%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$776.00	76.79	56.6	$774.04	Neutral	0.53
QQQ	$729.48	69.87	63.3	$727.01	Neutral	1.06
IWM	$304.38	67.72	27.0	$302.77	Bearish	0.21

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.42	32.96	53.1	$11.12	Neutral	1.45
TNX	46.96 ▼	46.23	36.9	-	-	-
GLD	$401.21	71.17	30.6	$379.76	Bearish	0.39
DXY	99.66	23.94	30.2	-	-	-
SLV	$58.45	69.52	13.4	$44.00	Bearish	0.37

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.471
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.18B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 71.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 75.7%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 458
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Health Care	87.8%	0/0
Communication Services	84.2%	0/0
Financials	84.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	82.1%	0/0
Materials	77.3%	0/0
Industrials	68.9%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	67.9%	0/0
Technology	63.9%	0/0
Real Estate	48.0%	0/0
Utilities	18.5%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.43 (5d: +0.4%)
Brent Crude: $88.57 | Spread: $6.14
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.01/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.93

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.55	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.107	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.403	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.631	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.23
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,995,775.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,314,079.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $489.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $776.00)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.66
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,832B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,041B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,668B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,924 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.471, GEX +9.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 71%.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~62h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~38h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~38h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] Screener: COP — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 76/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
[INFO] Screener: Q — promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.42%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (2):

[1] Chinese Yuan: Activity data and PBOC stance guide FX - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-activity-data-and-pboc-stance-guide-fx-mufg-202608141857 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:57:00 GMT

[2] Japanese Yen holds as soft US data meets a weak Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-holds-as-soft-us-data-meets-a-weak-yen-202608141853 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:53:04 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 167 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.4% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost