Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-13 13:47:08 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.444 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +10.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -2.1% slowing · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.16 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.11 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.444) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.444; GEX positive at 10.6B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $776.81 | 50 SMA $748.12 | 200 SMA $704.50 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.77
QQQ: $732.65 | 50 SMA $713.49 | 200 SMA $649.53 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $721.72
IWM: $303.09 | 50 SMA $294.52 | 200 SMA $268.01 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.45
VIX: 14.68 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.645%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$776.81	75.21	55.8	$772.77	Bearish	0.24
QQQ	$732.65	63.25	62.3	$721.72	Bearish	0.17
IWM	$303.09	65.21	27.2	$301.45	Bearish	0.44

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.68	32.16	54.0	$11.25	Neutral	1.36
TNX	46.45	47.84	36.9	-	-	-
GLD	$399.80	78.64	28.8	$377.53	Bearish	0.42
DXY	99.97	25.69	40.4	-	-	-
SLV	$58.48	75.18	13.6	$44.00	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.444
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 10.63B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.7%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 393
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Health Care	86.4%	0/0
Financials	78.3%	0/0
Consumer Staples	77.3%	0/0
Communication Services	73.3%	0/0
Materials	64.7%	0/0
Technology	63.9%	0/0
Industrials	62.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.2%	0/0
Real Estate	36.8%	0/0
Utilities	14.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.88 (5d: +4.7%)
Brent Crude: $87.66 | Spread: $5.78
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.86/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.03
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.89

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.561	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.158	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.384	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.629	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,505,729.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,660,081.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $479.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $776.81)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.65%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
DXY: 99.97
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,841B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,831B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,715B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,378 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~62h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~38h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~38h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 11 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 22 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 85 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.42%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (5):

[1] Australian Dollar Price Forecast: Further consolidation on the cards URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/australian-dollar-price-forecast-further-consolidation-on-the-cards-202608131743 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 17:43:50 GMT

[2] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD climbs as soft US inflation data hurt Fed hawkish bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-climbs-as-soft-us-inflation-data-hurt-fed-hawkish-bets-202608131738 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 17:38:24 GMT

[3] Cryptocurrencies price prediction: XRP, Dogecoin & Bitcoin - American Wrap 13 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-xrp-dogecoin-bitcoin-american-wrap-13-august-202608131735 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 17:35:42 GMT

[4] United States 30-Year Bond Auction increased to 5.216% from previous 5.058% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-30-year-bond-auction-increased-to-5216-from-previous-5058-202608131733 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 17:33:05 GMT

[5] U.S. economic outlook: Uneven growth and a Fed on hold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-economic-outlook-uneven-growth-and-a-fed-on-hold-202608131731 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 17:31:34 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 166 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 13.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 51
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS300 (+500% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost