Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-12 21:45:05 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.444 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +10.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -5.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.62 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.29 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 137 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.08 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +1.2% yen weakening, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.444) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.444 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 10.6B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.50 | 50 SMA $747.84 | 200 SMA $703.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.85
- QQQ: $722.84 | 50 SMA $713.88 | 200 SMA $648.96 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.71
- IWM: $302.89 | 50 SMA $294.24 | 200 SMA $267.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.04
- VIX: 14.55 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.682%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.50 | 65.36 | 55.9 | $758.85 | Bearish | 0.48 |
| QQQ | $722.84 | 55.12 | 63.0 | $708.71 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $302.89 | 60.32 | 26.8 | $301.04 | Bearish | 0.27 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.55 | 44.75 | 53.7 | $11.27 | Neutral | 1.38 |
| TNX | 46.82 β² | 52.54 | 38.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $404.42 | 67.62 | 29.1 | $381.12 | Bearish | 0.13 |
| DXY | 99.98 | 35.09 | 40.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.03 | 65.18 | 13.8 | $53.67 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.444
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 10.63B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 376
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 85.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 82.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 69.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 62.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.6% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.58 (5d: +6.8%)
- Brent Crude: $88.37 | Spread: $5.79
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.30/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $61.03
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.20
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.623 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.174 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.286 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.645 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,811,741.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,001,505.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $449.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $772.50)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket high Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.98
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,841B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,836B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,721B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,407 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.4% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: PCTY β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
- [INFO] Screener: VTRS β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 72/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
- [INFO] Screener: RVTY β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
- [INFO] Screener: PLTR β promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
- [INFO] Screener: LSCC β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.39%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 5.9% (2Q) vs 5.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-gross-domestic-product-yoy-59-2q-vs-57-202608122359 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:59:50 GMT
[2] Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 7.2%, below expectations (7.4%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-producer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-72-below-expectations-74-in-july-202608122350 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:50:15 GMT
[3] Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.6%) in July: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-producer-price-index-mom-below-forecasts-06-in-july-actual-01-202608122350 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:50:12 GMT
[4] United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -30%, above expectations (-31%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-rics-housing-price-balance-came-in-at-30-above-expectations-31-in-july-202608122348 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:48:26 GMT
[5] Iran says no progress on interim peace deal with US -- Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-says-no-progress-on-interim-peace-deal-with-us-reuters-202608122346 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:46:34 GMT
[6] Gold edges lower to near $4,400 as Iran-US tensions counter support from tame US inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-edges-lower-to-near-4-400-as-iran-us-tensions-counter-support-from-tame-us-inflation-202608122329 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:29:12 GMT
[7] Commodities: Weaker Dollar lacks growth catalyst - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/commodities-weaker-dollar-lacks-growth-catalyst-bny-202608122318 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:18:00 GMT
[8] Bitcoin shows early signs of bottom despite lingering market stress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-shows-early-signs-of-bottom-despite-lingering-market-stress-202608122317 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:17:40 GMT
[9] The Japanese Yen gives back half of what Tokyo bought URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-gives-back-half-of-what-tokyo-bought-202608122300 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:00:51 GMT
[10] Pound Sterling runs out of room at the July high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-runs-out-of-room-at-the-july-high-202608122300 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 23:00:28 GMT
[11] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: 50-day SMA caps sideways trading URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-50-day-sma-caps-sideways-trading-202608122239 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 22:39:06 GMT
[12] Indonesia: BI succession supports Rupiah stability - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-bi-succession-supports-rupiah-stability-dbs-202608122237 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 22:37:00 GMT
[13] Australian Dollar pulls back as inflation expectations loom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-pulls-back-as-inflation-expectations-loom-202608122231 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 22:31:02 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Fuel price hike risks repeating past unrest, Iran lawmaker warns Time: 2026-08-12T23:37:44.999Z
[2] Iranian women will lead fight for freedom, human rights activist says Time: 2026-08-12T22:59:11.185Z
[3] Iran lawmaker questions luxury car imports amid currency constraints Time: 2026-08-12T22:39:12.617Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 165 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily β 21.7% of normal
- Throughput: 13.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 51
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS135 (+170% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost