Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-12 13:08:18 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.435 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.9B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -5.4% growth collapse · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.29 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 136 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.06 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +1.1% yen weakening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.435) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.435; GEX positive at 6.9B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $773.28 | 50 SMA $747.84 | 200 SMA $703.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.99
QQQ: $725.40 | 50 SMA $713.88 | 200 SMA $648.96 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.77
IWM: $302.30 | 50 SMA $294.24 | 200 SMA $267.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.11
VIX: 14.66 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.668%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$773.28	65.36	55.9	$758.99	Neutral	0.58
QQQ	$725.40	55.12	63.0	$708.77	Bearish	0.34
IWM	$302.30	60.32	26.8	$301.11	Bearish	0.46

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.66	44.75	53.7	$11.27	Neutral	1.39
TNX	46.68	52.54	38.3	-	-	-
GLD	$404.19	67.62	29.1	$381.10	Bearish	0.19
DXY	99.94	26.91	34.1	-	-	-
SLV	$59.01	65.18	13.8	$53.67	Bearish	0.31

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.435
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.94B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 481
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Financials	87.9%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Materials	75.0%	0/0
Communication Services	73.7%	0/0
Industrials	72.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	65.5%	0/0
Consumer Staples	62.5%	0/0
Technology	60.0%	0/0
Real Estate	28.6%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.96 (5d: +7.3%)
Brent Crude: $88.59 | Spread: $5.63
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.78/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $60.87
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.19

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.626	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.173	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.287	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.646	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,814,645.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,038,463.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $297.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $773.28)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.67%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
DXY: 99.94
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,836B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,720B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,365 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.4% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: NET — promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
[INFO] Screener: PH — promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
[INFO] Screener: PFE — promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 80/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
[INFO] Screener: ENTG — promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
[INFO] Screener: MSI — promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 61/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] British Pound holds near 1.3500 as CPI relief meets Hormuz risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-near-13500-as-cpi-relief-meets-hormuz-risk-202608121657 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 16:57:31 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 165 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 13.0% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 270
Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost