Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-12 10:45:17 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.435 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.7% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.29 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 136 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.15 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.435) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.435; GEX positive at 6.9B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 64% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.93 | 50 SMA $747.84 | 200 SMA $703.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.96
- QQQ: $725.20 | 50 SMA $713.88 | 200 SMA $648.96 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.79
- IWM: $301.42 | 50 SMA $294.24 | 200 SMA $267.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.24
- VIX: 14.82 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.666%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.93 | 65.36 | 55.9 | $758.96 | Neutral | 0.62 |
| QQQ | $725.20 | 55.12 | 63.0 | $708.79 | Bearish | 0.39 |
| IWM | $301.42 | 60.32 | 26.8 | $301.24 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.82 | 44.75 | 53.7 | $11.26 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| TNX | 46.66 | 52.54 | 38.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $405.76 | 67.62 | 29.1 | $382.42 | Bearish | 0.17 |
| DXY | 99.77 | 23.54 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.82 | 65.18 | 13.8 | $53.73 | Bearish | 0.24 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.435
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.94B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 477
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 73.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 60.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 53.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.77 (5d: +7.1%)
- Brent Crude: $88.61 | Spread: $5.84
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.85/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.28
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.627 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.179 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.287 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.645 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 867,715.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,007,245.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $144.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $772.93)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.67%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.77
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,836B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,720B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,821 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.2 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: NET β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
- [INFO] Screener: PH β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
- [INFO] Screener: PFE β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 80/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
- [INFO] Screener: ENTG β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
- [INFO] Screener: MSI β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 61/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
- [INFO] Screener: WMS β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.40%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 332.568 | Prev: 333.979
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Euro steadies against Pound Sterling as traders await UK GDP verdict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-against-pound-sterling-as-traders-await-uk-gdp-verdict-202608121440 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:40:54 GMT
[2] Visa (NYSE: V) charges toward new all-time highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/visa-nyse-v-charges-toward-new-all-time-highs-202608121439 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:39:08 GMT
[3] Emerging Markets: Steepening Treasuries curb appeal - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/emerging-markets-steepening-treasuries-curb-appeal-bny-202608121436 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:36:36 GMT
[4] From setup to surge: Copper $HG_F targets fresh highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/from-setup-to-surge-copper-hg-f-targets-fresh-highs-202608121436 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:36:11 GMT
[5] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above forecasts (-1.4M) in August 7: Actual (17.422M) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-above-forecasts-14m-in-august-7-actual-17422m-202608121435 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:35:10 GMT
[6] AI trade far from over as CoreWeave, Nebius surge on outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ai-trade-far-from-over-as-coreweave-nebius-surge-on-outlook-202608121429 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:29:51 GMT
[7] Gold - Potential reversal play [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-potential-reversal-play-video-202608121415 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:15:49 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Trump says US has 'total control' over Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-12T14:40:44.257Z
[2] 84 Iran-aligned Houthis killed in six days - Al Hadath Time: 2026-08-12T14:36:31.037Z
[3] EU, 26 countries condemn Iran's executions of protesters Time: 2026-08-12T14:27:37.076Z
[4] Hormuz traffic rises but remains below normal levels - Kpler Time: 2026-08-12T14:26:52.126Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 165 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 11.7% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 135
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost