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2026-W33

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-12 08:01:41 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.435 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.9B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 65% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold -1.5% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.28 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 136 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.94 dealer stress
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 29 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +1.1% yen weakening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Moderate divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and carry flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 5 signals disagree with price.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.435) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $84, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.435; GEX positive at 6.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $771.81 | 50 SMA $747.84 | 200 SMA $703.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.68
  • QQQ: $722.32 | 50 SMA $713.88 | 200 SMA $648.96 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.45
  • IWM: $301.52 | 50 SMA $294.24 | 200 SMA $267.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $277.0
  • VIX: 15.32 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.684%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $771.81 65.36 55.9 $758.68 Neutral 0.74
QQQ $722.32 55.12 63.0 $708.45 Neutral 0.94
IWM $301.52 60.32 26.8 $277.00 Neutral 0.64

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.32 44.75 53.7 $10.00 None None
TNX 46.84 52.54 38.3 - - -
GLD $403.93 67.62 29.1 $376.29 Bearish 0.27
DXY 99.85 24.73 33.5 - - -
SLV $59.80 65.18 13.8 $46.50 Bearish 0.28

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.435
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.94B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.8%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.7%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 492
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Financials 85.1% 0/0
Health Care 83.0% 0/0
Energy 78.9% 0/0
Communication Services 77.8% 0/0
Materials 75.0% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 69.0% 0/0
Industrials 68.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 63.6% 0/0
Technology 58.5% 0/0
Real Estate 14.8% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $83.57 (5d: +8.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $89.27 | Spread: $5.70
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.43/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $60.93
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.07

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.627 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.179 normal
SPY / TNX -0.285 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.645 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $583.2B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $771.81)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.68%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.85
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,836B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,720B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,194 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.645 with energy in RISING β€” crude shock propagating into equities.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 21 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 84 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 30 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 28 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 29 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 28 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.38%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 332.568 | Prev: 333.979

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
  • Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] Bitcoin miners earn under 0.7% of revenue from fees in new 10-year low URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-miners-earn-under-07-of-revenue-from-fees-in-new-10-year-low-202608121157 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:57:19 GMT

[2] New Zealand Dollar slides as Middle East tensions give US Dollar the upper hand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-slides-as-middle-east-tensions-give-us-dollar-the-upper-hand-202608121156 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:56:44 GMT

[3] United States Dollar Index trades calmly ahead of US Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-trades-calmly-ahead-of-us-inflation-data-202608121149 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:49:38 GMT

[4] Why is the Japanese Yen stuck near 159.25 after the first joint US-Japan intervention since 2011? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/why-is-the-japanese-yen-stuck-near-15925-after-the-first-joint-us-japan-intervention-since-2011-202608121148 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:48:57 GMT

[5] XRP trading could get spicy after CPI report as futures bets hit highest since October URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-trading-could-get-spicy-after-cpi-report-as-futures-bets-hit-highest-since-october-202608121148 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:48:27 GMT

[6] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Biding its time near 1.1550, awaiting US CPI numbers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-biding-its-time-near-11550-awaiting-us-cpi-numbers-202608121147 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:47:57 GMT

[7] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Recovery stalls below the 50-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-recovery-stalls-below-the-50-day-sma-202608121146 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:46:08 GMT

[8] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP holds steady above 1.3500 vs USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-holds-steady-above-13500-vs-usd-202608121144 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:44:05 GMT

[9] British Pound: Strong Q2 may give way to flat growth - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-strong-q2-may-give-way-to-flat-growth-td-securities-202608121137 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:37:20 GMT

[10] US Dollar: Inflation data and Middle East risks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-inflation-data-and-middle-east-risks-commerzbank-202608121120 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:20:02 GMT

[11] Markets take a dive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-take-a-dive-202608121115 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:15:14 GMT

[12] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI hits a make-or-break level amid renewed social buzz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-hits-a-make-or-break-level-amid-renewed-social-buzz-202608121114 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:14:25 GMT

[13] Germany Current Account n.s.a.: €19B (June) vs €10.4B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-current-account-nsa-eur19b-june-vs-eur104b-202608121103 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:03:10 GMT

[14] Iran confirms no discussions over US-Iran ceasefire extension for now - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-confirms-no-discussions-over-us-iran-ceasefire-extension-for-now-reuters-202608121102 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:02:08 GMT

[15] United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 3.6% in August 7 from previous -2.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-up-to-36-in-august-7-from-previous-29-202608121100 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:00:01 GMT

[16] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP stay under pressure as focus shifts to US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-stay-under-pressure-as-focus-shifts-to-us-inflation-data-202608121100 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[17] Gold rises above $4,400 as US inflation data takes centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rises-above-4-400-as-us-inflation-data-takes-centre-stage-202608121051 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:51:12 GMT

[18] Markets stuck in a loop: Geopolitics, Oil and the Fed keep stocks churning ahead of CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-stuck-in-a-loop-geopolitics-oil-and-the-fed-keep-stocks-churning-ahead-of-cpi-202608121048 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:48:57 GMT

[19] Yen attempts to bounce up from 159.45 lows ahead of the US inflation release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/yen-attempts-to-bounce-up-from-15945-lows-ahead-of-the-us-inflation-release-202608121047 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:47:43 GMT

[20] Indian inflation accelerates to 4.45% in July, slightly below expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-inflation-accelerates-to-445-in-july-slightly-below-expectations-202608121041 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:41:34 GMT

[21] The (very) long end of the US yield curve recently hit multi-annual highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-very-long-end-of-the-us-yield-curve-recently-hit-multi-annual-highs-202608121039 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:39:54 GMT

[22] Australian Dollar outperforms despite RBA's hawkish tone fails to sway markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-outperforms-despite-rbas-hawkish-tone-fails-to-sway-markets-202608121035 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:35:21 GMT

[23] AI needs more than chips: Why Lumentum and the optics trade are lighting up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ai-needs-more-than-chips-why-lumentum-and-the-optics-trade-are-lighting-up-202608121018 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:18:15 GMT

[24] Euro: Soft US CPI could support gains against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-soft-us-cpi-could-support-gains-against-us-dollar-ing-202608121002 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:02:46 GMT

[25] US CPI lined up in the crosshairs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-cpi-lined-up-in-the-crosshairs-202608121001 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:01:18 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Video: Plainclothes Basij forces harass young woman in Isfahan Time: 2026-08-12T11:33:26.797Z

[2] Oil slicks hit Qeshm mangroves and Oman coast in mounting war fallout Time: 2026-08-12T11:31:30.410Z

[BREAKING] [3] No Iran-US talks on ceasefire extension - Reuters Time: 2026-08-12T11:08:46.289Z

[4] Private data undercounts oil shipments through Hormuz, US says Time: 2026-08-12T10:54:34.621Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 165 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β€” 13.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 0.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 250
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost