Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-11 15:35:37 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.487 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.06 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +8.3B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -2.4% slowing · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.64 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.61 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 19 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +1.0% stable, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape — 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $83, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.487; GEX positive at 8.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $770.85 | 50 SMA $747.56 | 200 SMA $703.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.68
QQQ: $718.40 | 50 SMA $714.27 | 200 SMA $648.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.53
IWM: $301.11 | 50 SMA $294.03 | 200 SMA $267.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.84
VIX: 15.24 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.684%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$770.85	66.78	57.8	$758.68	Neutral	0.97
QQQ	$718.40	54.61	66.2	$708.53	Neutral	0.76
IWM	$301.11	54.69	29.1	$292.84	Neutral	0.60

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.24	43.97	61.6	$10.51	Neutral	1.36
TNX	46.84	56.51	39.9	-	-	-
GLD	$400.94	71.43	33.6	$376.52	Bearish	0.27
DXY	99.82	30.49	35.4	-	-	-
SLV	$58.49	70.78	15.1	$53.42	Bearish	0.30

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
DIX Signal: Strong buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.3B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.7%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	88.1%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Materials	75.0%	0/0
Industrials	68.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	64.4%	0/0
Technology	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Staples	58.8%	0/0
Real Estate	21.4%	0/0
Utilities	13.8%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $83.39 (5d: +10.9%)
Brent Crude: $89.07 | Spread: $5.68
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
Heating Oil: $4.2700/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.31/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $60.83
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.641	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.212	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.297	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.607	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.46
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,464,187.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,657,952.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.06 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $549.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $770.85)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.68%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
DXY: 99.82
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
Stagflation Risk Score: 19/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,744B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,504 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.607 with energy in RISING — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] DIX at 0.487 — strong dark pool buying activity.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.487, GEX +8.3B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: ENTG — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=247)).
[INFO] Screener: BRK-B — promotion-ready (21d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 51% (n=6070)).
[INFO] Screener: BRK-B — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 51% (n=6070)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: EXPD — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=247)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Iraqi PM orders draft law to restrict weapons to state Time: 2026-08-11T19:24:57.952Z

[2] IRGC drone overflights, harassment of ships persist in Strait of Hormuz - JMIC Time: 2026-08-11T19:19:03.132Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 164 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.7% of normal
Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 298
Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 43.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.2 billion/day economic cost