Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-11 08:01:34 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.487 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.3B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -3.0% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.60 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 137 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.98 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 14 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +1.1% yen weakening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but energy and growth expectations haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $82, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.487; GEX positive at 8.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $773.20 | 50 SMA $747.19 | 200 SMA $702.97 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.86
- QQQ: $721.64 | 50 SMA $714.57 | 200 SMA $647.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.2
- IWM: $300.00 | 50 SMA $293.87 | 200 SMA $267.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.56
- VIX: 15.46 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.699%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $773.20 | 69.55 | 58.0 | $758.86 | Bearish | 0.12 |
| QQQ | $721.64 | 59.64 | 66.2 | $708.20 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| IWM | $300.00 | 61.77 | 28.8 | $292.56 | Neutral | 1.04 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.46 | 36.82 | 62.1 | $10.51 | Neutral | 1.28 |
| TNX | 46.99 βΌ | 55.78 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.83 | 72.76 | 33.5 | $378.71 | Bearish | 0.16 |
| DXY | 99.81 | 29.87 | 38.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.47 | 71.14 | 14.2 | $51.65 | Bearish | 0.15 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.3B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 69.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $82.30 (5d: +8.6%)
- Brent Crude: $87.85 | Spread: $5.55
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.30/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.18
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.14
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.65 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.209 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.315 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.604 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.46
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,778,989.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,857,896.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $590.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $773.20)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.81
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.22% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,744B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,343 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.487 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.487, GEX +8.3B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 67%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.40%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β1.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (21):
[1] Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 1.7%, above forecasts (1.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-industrial-output-yoy-came-in-at-17-above-forecasts-11-in-june-202608111200 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:04 GMT
[2] Mexico Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in June: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-industrial-output-mom-below-forecasts-03-in-june-actual-02-202608111200 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:04 GMT
[3] Brazil IPCA Inflation above forecasts (0.03%) in July: Actual (0.07%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-ipca-inflation-above-forecasts-003-in-july-actual-007-202608111200 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:02 GMT
[4] Consumer borrowing picked up in June but worrisome trend persists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/consumer-borrowing-picked-up-in-june-but-worrisome-trend-persists-202608111157 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:57:24 GMT
[5] US Dollar: CPI keeps USD in tight ranges - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cpi-keeps-usd-in-tight-ranges-ocbc-202608111153 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:53:08 GMT
[6] Swiss Franc holds below 0.8100 US Dollar with US-Iran negotiations deadlocked URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-holds-below-08100-us-dollar-with-us-iran-negotiations-deadlocked-202608111152 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:52:35 GMT
[7] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds Descending Triangle breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-holds-descending-triangle-breakout-202608111146 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:46:57 GMT
[8] China official Gold buying accelerates as it brings some of its Gold home URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/china-official-gold-buying-accelerates-as-it-brings-some-of-its-gold-home-202608111145 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:45:40 GMT
[9] Qatar says Oman-Iran talks reach advanced stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/qatar-says-oman-iran-talks-reach-advanced-stage-202608111140 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:40:13 GMT
[10] Natural gas: European prices surge as LNG flows stall - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-european-prices-surge-as-lng-flows-stall-ing-202608111133 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:33:46 GMT
[11] Gold pauses near two-month highs as US-Iran standoff drives Oil prices higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-pauses-near-two-month-highs-as-us-iran-standoff-drives-oil-prices-higher-202608111125 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:25:42 GMT
[12] Japanese Yen: Wider range with intervention support against US Dollar - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-wider-range-with-intervention-support-against-us-dollar-hsbc-202608111118 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:18:42 GMT
[13] The commodities feed: Oil higher as US-Iran deal hopes fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-higher-as-us-iran-deal-hopes-fade-202608111110 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:10:47 GMT
[14] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: A break above 100.00 would confirm a double bottom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-a-break-above-10000-would-confirm-a-double-bottom-202608111106 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:06:48 GMT
[15] South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) rose from previous -4.3% to -1.7% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-manufacturing-production-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-43-to-17-in-june-202608111100 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:00:04 GMT
[16] Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate, XRP dips as optimism for a US-Iran deal fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-and-ethereum-consolidate-xrp-dips-as-optimism-for-a-us-iran-deal-fades-202608111100 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMT
[17] Euro treads water against US Dollar as traders await US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-treads-water-against-us-dollar-as-traders-await-us-cpi-202608111053 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:53:57 GMT
[18] Gold Price Forecast: Rally hits pause near $4,440 with US CPI in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-rally-hits-pause-near-4-440-with-us-cpi-in-focus-202608111049 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:49:52 GMT
[19] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Focus shifts to 0.5850 support area as risk appetite fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-focus-shifts-to-05850-support-area-as-risk-appetite-fades-202608111022 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:22:54 GMT
[20] How is AI infrastructure creating hidden FX demand? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/how-is-ai-infrastructure-creating-hidden-fx-demand-202608111017 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:17:46 GMT
[21] Pump.fun Price Forecast: PUMP rallies on steady revenue, buybacks, and burns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pumpfun-price-forecast-pump-rallies-on-steady-revenue-buybacks-and-burns-202608111002 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:02:46 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Video: Trump used decoy plane to evade Iran threat - Washington Post Time: 2026-08-11T11:24:34.565Z
[2] Pakistan interior minister arrives in Tehran for talks Time: 2026-08-11T11:23:14.578Z
[BREAKING] [3] Cargo ship hit by projectile off Yemen, casualties reported, UKMTO says Time: 2026-08-11T11:10:26.409Z
[4] Houthis vow to continue attacks on Saudi ships and military sites Time: 2026-08-11T10:56:35.177Z
[BREAKING] [5] Qatar says Oman-Iran talks at advanced stage Time: 2026-08-11T10:31:34.713Z
[6] Rising costs leave Iranians nothing for a coffee Time: 2026-08-11T10:22:08.764Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 164 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.5% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 320
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 61.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost