Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-10 15:57:42 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -3.2% growth pessimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.61 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 133 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 16 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +1.1% yen weakening, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but energy and growth expectations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 79/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $82, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $772.41 | 50 SMA $747.19 | 200 SMA $702.97 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.85
QQQ: $720.63 | 50 SMA $714.57 | 200 SMA $647.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.22
IWM: $299.71 | 50 SMA $293.87 | 200 SMA $267.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.55
VIX: 15.44 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.699%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$772.41	69.55	58.0	$758.85	Neutral	0.53
QQQ	$720.63	59.64	66.2	$708.22	Neutral	0.92
IWM	$299.71	61.77	28.8	$292.55	Neutral	1.09

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.44	36.82	62.1	$10.51	Neutral	1.27
TNX	46.99 ▼	55.78	39.0	-	-	-
GLD	$402.59	72.76	33.5	$382.27	Bearish	0.17
DXY	99.81	29.93	38.9	-	-	-
SLV	$59.41	71.14	14.2	$51.69	Bearish	0.17

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.05B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Communication Services	89.5%	0/0
Financials	88.1%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Energy	78.9%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Industrials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	66.1%	0/0
Technology	57.8%	0/0
Real Estate	22.2%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $82.01 (5d: +8.2%)
Brent Crude: $87.57 | Spread: $5.56
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.45/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $60.08
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.649	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.214	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.316	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.612	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.03
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,751,757.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,822,961.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $585.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $767 (Spot: $772.41)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
DXY: 99.81
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.22% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,862B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,752B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,976 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +9.1B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
[INFO] SPY (772.97) reclaimed ZGL (772.89) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (772.79) dropped below ZGL (772.89) — expect amplified downside moves.
[CRITICAL] AI-1 read is dead: 2 consecutive AI-1 reads could not be parsed (threshold 2). model=claude-opus-4-8 stop_reason=max_tokens. stop_reason=max_tokens means the reply was TRUNCATED — a reasoning model burning the output budget is the known cause; check OPENCODE_GO_REASONING_EFFORT / OPENCODE_GO_MAX_TOKENS.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.40%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑1.9% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Trump likens US blockade of Iran's ports to 'steel wall' Time: 2026-08-10T19:38:42.517Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 163 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.7% of normal
Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 500
Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS850 (+1600% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost