Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-10 12:36:57 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.97 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -2.4% slowing Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.61 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 133 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.05 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 16 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 65% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.95 | 50 SMA $747.19 | 200 SMA $702.97 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.86
- QQQ: $721.96 | 50 SMA $714.57 | 200 SMA $647.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.34
- IWM: $299.90 | 50 SMA $293.87 | 200 SMA $267.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.55
- VIX: 15.20 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.694%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.95 | 69.55 | 58.0 | $758.86 | Bearish | 0.46 |
| QQQ | $721.96 | 59.64 | 66.2 | $708.34 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| IWM | $299.90 | 61.77 | 28.8 | $292.55 | Neutral | 1.09 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.20 | 36.82 | 62.1 | $10.51 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| TNX | 46.94 | 55.78 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $399.76 | 72.76 | 33.5 | $377.28 | Bearish | 0.22 |
| DXY | 99.71 | 27.90 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.80 | 71.14 | 14.2 | $53.18 | Bearish | 0.17 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.05B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 85.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 66.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 63.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 57.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 21.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.20 (5d: +7.2%)
- Brent Crude: $86.68 | Spread: $5.48
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.40/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.49
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.20
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.649 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.209 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.313 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.614 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.03
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,285,825.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,226,733.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $348.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $767 (Spot: $772.95)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.69%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.71
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.22% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,867B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,071B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,235 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.0 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +9.1B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [INFO] SPY (772.97) reclaimed ZGL (772.89) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (772.79) dropped below ZGL (772.89) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [CRITICAL] AI-1 read is dead: 2 consecutive AI-1 reads could not be parsed (threshold 2). model=claude-opus-4-8 stop_reason=max_tokens. stop_reason=max_tokens means the reply was TRUNCATED β a reasoning model burning the output budget is the known cause; check OPENCODE_GO_REASONING_EFFORT / OPENCODE_GO_MAX_TOKENS.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.40%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β1.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] The Dow Jones Industrial Average kept what payrolls lost URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-dow-jones-industrial-average-kept-what-payrolls-lost-202608101625 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 16:25:51 GMT
[2] British Pound climbs as Hormuz talks stall, US CPI up next URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-climbs-as-hormuz-talks-stall-us-cpi-up-next-202608101616 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 16:16:33 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Khamenei urges Vahidi to prepare IRGC for 'powerful offensive operations' Time: 2026-08-10T16:16:00.938Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 163 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 229
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 60.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS190 (+280% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.4 billion/day economic cost