Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-07 04:01:21 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +7.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.22 normal, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.61 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 135 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.86 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.75% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 88/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 7.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $768.83 | 50 SMA $746.37 | 200 SMA $701.94 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.99
- QQQ: $717.05 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $703.79
- IWM: $298.09 | 50 SMA $293.49 | 200 SMA $266.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $274.09
- VIX: 15.15 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.670%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $768.83 | 61.57 | 59.2 | $762.99 | Bearish | 1.53 |
| QQQ | $717.05 | 54.05 | 67.3 | $703.79 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| IWM | $298.09 | 55.54 | 31.6 | $274.09 | Neutral | 1.10 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.15 | 47.03 | 64.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.66 |
| TNX | 46.70 | 54.30 | 39.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $389.34 | 69.51 | 32.2 | $371.00 | Bearish | 0.22 |
| DXY | 99.96 | 37.94 | 34.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.59 | 70.08 | 15.1 | $53.09 | Bearish | 0.22 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.88B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.44% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 66.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 35.7% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $78.04 (5d: -7.8%)
- Brent Crude: $83.40 | Spread: $5.36
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.72/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.16
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.63
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.653 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.218 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.32 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.61 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.12
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,032,310.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,376,467.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $646.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $768.83)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.67%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.96
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,848B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,068B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,756B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,252 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +7.9B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 18 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 81 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 27 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.2% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β1.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (29):
[1] NFP preview: Will markets get the weak print they would like? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/nfp-preview-will-markets-get-the-weak-print-they-would-like-202608070755 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:55:00 GMT
[2] British Pound holds steady around 213.00 as fiscal concerns and rate gap undermine Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-steady-around-21300-as-fiscal-concerns-and-rate-gap-undermine-yen-202608070753 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:53:22 GMT
[3] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD bulls are eroding resistance at the $63.30 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-bulls-are-eroding-resistance-at-the-6330-area-202608070749 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:49:24 GMT
[4] Copper: Near record highs on tight supply - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-near-record-highs-on-tight-supply-ing-202608070748 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:48:42 GMT
[5] Forex Today: Markets turn attention from Middle East to Nonfarm Payrolls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-markets-turn-attention-from-middle-east-to-nonfarm-payrolls-202608070747 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:47:41 GMT
[6] PU Prime expands gold trading with the launch of XAUUSD247 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/pu-prime-expands-gold-trading-with-the-launch-of-xauusd247-202608070738 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:38:54 GMT
[7] Dow Jones futures move little ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-move-little-ahead-of-us-nonfarm-payrolls-202608070736 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:36:35 GMT
[8] British Pound: Upside fades below 1.3410 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-upside-fades-below-13410-against-us-dollar-uob-202608070724 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:24:36 GMT
[9] Euro: US payrolls could cap gains against the US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-us-payrolls-could-cap-gains-against-the-us-dollar-commerzbank-202608070718 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:18:43 GMT
[10] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bullish Flag pattern underway URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-bullish-flag-pattern-underway-202608070716 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:16:44 GMT
[11] Euro steadies against the British Pound following another rejection at the 0.8580 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-against-the-british-pound-following-another-rejection-at-the-08580-area-202608070706 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:06:34 GMT
[12] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flat lines below mid-0.7000s/100-SMA as bulls await US NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-flat-lines-below-mid-07000s-100-sma-as-bulls-await-us-nfp-202608070706 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:06:34 GMT
[13] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds losses near 182.50 as bearish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-holds-losses-near-18250-as-bearish-bias-prevails-202608070705 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:05:25 GMT
[14] Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate (3m) up to -35 in 3Q from previous -40 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-seco-consumer-climate-3m-up-to-35-in-3q-from-previous-40-202608070704 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:04:08 GMT
[15] Gold eyes $4,365, Silver targets $70 as the EUR/USD test key resist, CHF Weaker [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-eyes-4-365-silver-targets-70-as-the-eur-usd-test-key-resist-chf-weaker-video-202608070702 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:02:17 GMT
[16] Austria Trade Balance declined to β¬-635.5M in May from previous β¬-434.1M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-trade-balance-declined-to-eur-6355m-in-may-from-previous-eur-4341m-202608070700 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:00:26 GMT
[17] Austria Trade Balance dipped from previous β¬-434.1M to β¬-635M in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-trade-balance-dipped-from-previous-eur-4341m-to-eur-635m-in-may-202608070700 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:00:24 GMT
[18] Markets await NFP as Dollar eyes a rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-await-nfp-as-dollar-eyes-a-rebound-202608070700 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:00:19 GMT
[19] Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves increased to 768B in July from previous 759B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-foreign-currency-reserves-increased-to-768b-in-july-from-previous-759b-202608070700 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 07:00:12 GMT
[20] Gold: Breakout holds as US payrolls loom - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-breakout-holds-as-us-payrolls-loom-ocbc-202608070655 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:55:26 GMT
[21] Equities: Sector rotation dominates risk-off - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-sector-rotation-dominates-risk-off-danske-bank-202608070646 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:46:13 GMT
[22] France Current Account fell from previous β¬-0.1B to β¬-1.4B in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-current-account-fell-from-previous-eur-01b-to-eur-14b-in-june-202608070645 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:45:36 GMT
[23] France Exports, EUR: β¬54.537B (June) vs β¬53.581B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-exports-eur-eur54537b-june-vs-eur53581b-202608070645 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:45:32 GMT
[24] France Imports, EUR: β¬60.384B (June) vs previous β¬60.509B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-imports-eur-eur60384b-june-vs-previous-eur60509b-202608070645 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:45:27 GMT
[25] France Trade Balance EUR came in at β¬-5.847B, above expectations (β¬-6.5B) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-trade-balance-eur-came-in-at-eur-5847b-above-expectations-eur-65b-in-june-202608070645 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:45:20 GMT
[26] When good news becomes bad news for markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/when-good-news-becomes-bad-news-for-markets-202608070641 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:41:37 GMT
[27] Brent: US-Iran tensions support prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-us-iran-tensions-support-prices-ing-202608070634 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:34:30 GMT
[28] Euro flatlines amid mixed German data with all eyes on US Nonfarm Payrolls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-flatlines-amid-mixed-german-data-with-all-eyes-on-us-nonfarm-payrolls-data-202608070630 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:30:37 GMT
[29] WTI Price Forecast: Growing internal war risks in Middle East support recovery to near $78 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-growing-internal-war-risks-in-middle-east-support-recovery-to-near-78-202608070630 Published: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:30:07 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Saudi Arabia braces for attacks by Iraqi militias, Houthis - CNN Time: 2026-08-07T06:38:44.437Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 160 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 47
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost