Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-06 08:01:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +10.3B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.70 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.25 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 133 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.72 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 85/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; GEX positive at 10.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.86 | 50 SMA $745.89 | 200 SMA $701.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.28
- QQQ: $716.91 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $693.18
- IWM: $300.20 | 50 SMA $293.20 | 200 SMA $266.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.09
- VIX: 15.81 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.617%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.86 | 59.72 | 60.0 | $746.28 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $716.91 | 52.10 | 69.7 | $693.18 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $300.20 | 58.25 | 32.8 | $295.09 | Neutral | 0.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.81 | 52.62 | 63.7 | $10.81 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| TNX | 46.17 | 57.17 | 42.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $390.07 | 51.64 | 24.0 | $368.93 | Bearish | 2.30 |
| DXY | 99.69 | 32.64 | 31.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $56.17 | 55.94 | 14.2 | $51.90 | Bearish | 0.15 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 10.31B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 72.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $75.08 (5d: -10.2%)
- Brent Crude: $79.40 | Spread: $4.32
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.08/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.31
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.699 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.251 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.343 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.636 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.58
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,342,673.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,460,537.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $677.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $770.86)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.69
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,089B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,542 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +10.3B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 68%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (91.82) for 6 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 80 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 26 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] Australian Dollar: AAA rating intact but growth risks linger - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-aaa-rating-intact-but-growth-risks-linger-bny-202608061152 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:52:19 GMT
[2] Czech Koruna: Sideways against Euro as CNB holds rates - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/czech-koruna-sideways-against-euro-as-cnb-holds-rates-commerzbank-202608061143 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:43:54 GMT
[3] Euro edges down while US NFP takes centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-edges-down-while-us-nfp-takes-centre-stage-202608061143 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:43:45 GMT
[4] British Pound treads water above 1.3450 with markets awaiting US employment figures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-treads-water-above-13450-with-markets-awaiting-us-employment-figures-202608061142 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:42:45 GMT
[5] Gold: Hormuz optimism supports rally - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-hormuz-optimism-supports-rally-ing-202608061135 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:35:17 GMT
[6] US Dollar: Relief rallies seen shallow - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-relief-rallies-seen-shallow-bbh-202608061121 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:21:59 GMT
[7] Gold steadies near seven-week high as markets await Strait of Hormuz deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-near-seven-week-high-as-markets-await-strait-of-hormuz-deal-202608061118 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:18:04 GMT
[8] Try More. Commit Less. Subscriptions Arrive in cTrader Store URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/try-more-commit-less-subscriptions-arrive-in-ctrader-store-202608061114 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:14:20 GMT
[9] Straits talk opens markets, again URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/straits-talk-opens-markets-again-202608061101 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:01:50 GMT
[10] Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum gain ground as XRP extends decline amid potential Iran-Oman deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-and-ethereum-gain-ground-as-xrp-extends-decline-amid-potential-iran-oman-deal-202608061100 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMT
[11] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD clings to gains near $62 with US NFP in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-clings-to-gains-near-62-with-us-nfp-in-focus-202608061059 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 10:59:25 GMT
[12] Brent Oil outlook: Near-term action in sideways mode, technical picture remains bearish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brent-oil-outlook-near-term-action-in-sideways-mode-technical-picture-remains-bearish-202608061052 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 10:52:15 GMT
[13] Pudgy Penguins Price Forecast: PENGU eyes breakout as bullish derivatives signals emerge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pudgy-penguins-price-forecast-pengu-eyes-breakout-as-bullish-derivatives-signals-emerge-202608061044 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 10:44:50 GMT
[14] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls target $4,380 buoyed by lower US yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-bulls-target-4-380-buoyed-by-lower-us-yields-202608061036 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 10:36:50 GMT
[15] NAS100 - Downside in play [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nas100-downside-in-play-video-202608061033 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 10:33:34 GMT
[16] Coinbase UK launches 24/5 trading for 4,000 US stocks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/coinbase-uk-launches-24-5-trading-for-4-000-us-stocks-202608061008 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 10:08:20 GMT
[17] Japanese Yen: Policy shifts weigh on JPY against US Dollar - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-shifts-weigh-on-jpy-against-us-dollar-rabobank-202608061004 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 10:04:55 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[1] Israel charges two Ashkelon residents with spying for Iran Time: 2026-08-06T11:58:22.253Z
[2] Pezeshkian rejects tens of thousands killed in Iran protests Time: 2026-08-06T11:34:44.282Z
[3] Kuwait orders closure of country's only Iranian school after attacks - AFP Time: 2026-08-06T11:13:11.834Z
[4] Iran, Oman close to finalizing Hormuz shipping plan, lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-06T11:03:21.562Z
[5] Conflicting accounts emerge over how US, Israel located Iran's top security official Time: 2026-08-06T10:55:23.720Z
[6] Iran arrests 30 on accusations of Mossad links, cites protest involvement Time: 2026-08-06T10:46:07.464Z
[7] Video: Cleric blames Khamenei's doctor for pushing Pezeshkian presidency Time: 2026-08-06T10:21:04.808Z
[8] Hunger at the checkout: Food thefts stir debate over Iran's economic decline Time: 2026-08-06T10:20:12.484Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 159 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.1% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 180
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost