Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 22:00:59 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.464 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +10.3B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.70 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.25 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 133 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.72 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.73% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 85/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.464 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 10.3B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.86 | 50 SMA $745.89 | 200 SMA $701.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.28
- QQQ: $716.91 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $693.18
- IWM: $300.20 | 50 SMA $293.20 | 200 SMA $266.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.09
- VIX: 15.81 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.617%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.86 | 59.72 | 60.0 | $746.28 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $716.91 | 52.10 | 69.7 | $693.18 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $300.20 | 58.25 | 32.8 | $295.09 | Neutral | 0.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.81 | 52.62 | 63.7 | $10.81 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| TNX | 46.17 | 57.17 | 42.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $390.07 | 51.64 | 24.0 | $368.93 | Bearish | 2.30 |
| DXY | 99.69 | 32.64 | 31.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $56.17 | 55.94 | 14.2 | $51.90 | Bearish | 0.15 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 10.31B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 72.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $75.08 (5d: -10.2%)
- Brent Crude: $79.40 | Spread: $4.32
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.08/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.31
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.699 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.251 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.343 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.636 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.58
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,342,673.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,460,537.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $677.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $770.86)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.69
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,089B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,504 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +10.3B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 68%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: BIIB β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1475)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CRUS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=2838)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: TXT β promotion-ready (64d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=5095)).
- [INFO] Screener: TXT β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=5095)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Canadian Dollar remains on the front foot vs USD as oil rebounds and Fed hike bets fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-remains-on-the-front-foot-vs-usd-as-oil-rebounds-and-fed-hike-bets-fade-202608060153 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:53:59 GMT
[2] US President Donald Trump's administration refunds $100bn of 'liberation day' tariffs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trumps-administration-refunds-100bn-of-liberation-day-tariffs-202608060151 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:51:07 GMT
[3] Australian Dollar remains calm following Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-remains-calm-following-trade-balance-data-202608060150 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:50:02 GMT
[4] Australia's Trade Balance shows a surprise surplus of 1,929M MoM in June, vs. -1,100 expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australias-trade-balance-shows-a-surprise-surplus-of-1-929m-mom-in-june-vs-1-100-expected-202608060132 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:32:57 GMT
[5] Australia Exports (MoM) rose from previous -6.9% to 9.6% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-exports-mom-rose-from-previous-69-to-96-in-june-202608060130 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:30:36 GMT
[6] Australia Trade Balance (MoM) registered at 1929M above expectations (-1100M) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-trade-balance-mom-registered-at-1929m-above-expectations-1100m-in-june-202608060130 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:30:28 GMT
[7] Australia Imports (MoM) fell from previous 2.6% to -0.2% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-imports-mom-fell-from-previous-26-to-02-in-june-202608060130 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:30:21 GMT
[8] British Pound holds steady above 1.3450 as Iran hopes and Fed repricing weigh on USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-steady-above-13450-as-iran-hopes-and-fed-repricing-weigh-on-usd-202608060117 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:17:06 GMT
[9] Euro strengthens above 1.1550 as softer US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strengthens-above-11550-as-softer-us-data-202608060116 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:16:32 GMT
[10] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7895 vs. 6.7889 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67895-vs-67889-previous-202608060115 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:15:34 GMT
[11] Fed's Daly: Some signs tariff impact on inflation starting to fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-daly-some-signs-tariff-impact-on-inflation-starting-to-fade-202608060110 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 01:10:33 GMT
[12] WTI remains subdued near $74.00 due to Iran-Oman agreement on Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-remains-subdued-near-7400-due-to-iran-oman-agreement-on-hormuz-202608060050 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:50:13 GMT
[13] Ireland AIB Services PMI rose from previous 54.2 to 55.2 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-aib-services-pmi-rose-from-previous-542-to-552-in-july-202608060032 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:32:17 GMT
[14] Yemen's Houthis say they attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/yemens-houthis-say-they-attacked-a-saudi-oil-tanker-in-the-red-sea-gulf-of-aden-202608060001 Published: Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:01:40 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Iran talks differ because US was ready to act, Trump says Time: 2026-08-06T01:23:39.413Z
[2] Tanker reports explosions near Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says Time: 2026-08-06T00:57:36.576Z
[3] Iran has fractured system and is difficult to deal with, Vance says Time: 2026-08-06T00:04:22.167Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost