Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 17:02:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.70 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.25 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· VVIX/VIX 5.72 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.73% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 126 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 150 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.83 | 50 SMA $745.89 | 200 SMA $701.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.28
- QQQ: $716.93 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $693.18
- IWM: $300.02 | 50 SMA $293.20 | 200 SMA $266.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.09
- VIX: 15.81 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.617%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.83 | 59.72 | 60.0 | $746.28 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $716.93 | 52.10 | 69.7 | $693.18 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $300.02 | 58.25 | 32.8 | $295.09 | Neutral | 0.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.81 | 52.62 | 63.7 | $10.81 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| TNX | 46.17 | 57.17 | 42.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $389.40 | 51.64 | 24.0 | $368.93 | Bearish | 2.30 |
| DXY | 99.69 | 32.71 | 31.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $56.08 | 55.94 | 14.2 | $51.90 | Bearish | 0.15 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 72.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $75.00 (5d: -10.3%)
- Brent Crude: $79.28 | Spread: $4.28
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.16/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.31
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.699 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.253 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.342 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.636 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.58
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,342,673.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,460,537.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $677.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $770.83)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.69
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,089B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,674 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 68%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Fed Cook backs hold but warns rate hike possible if disinflation stalls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-cook-backs-hold-but-warns-rate-hike-possible-if-disinflation-stalls-202608052048 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 20:48:45 GMT
[2] Singapore Dollar: Break of 1.2790 may unlock further gains - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-break-of-12790-may-unlock-further-gains-uob-202608052047 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 20:47:00 GMT
[3] Mexican Peso extends nine-day gains as Gulf War de-escalates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-extends-nine-day-gains-as-gulf-war-de-escalates-202608052038 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 20:38:08 GMT
[4] Sandisk destroys consensus in Q4, but market acts unimpressed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sandisk-destroys-consensus-in-q4-but-market-acts-unimpressed-202608052037 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 20:37:36 GMT
[5] Hashdex Bitcoin ETF to shut down following low liquidity URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hashdex-bitcoin-etf-to-shut-down-following-low-liquidity-202608052033 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 20:33:41 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.1% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 200
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost