Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 15:50:26 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +8.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 68% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.69 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.26 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.5 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 15 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.73% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Regime: low — Calm regime — balanced board
Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
Shorts: WTW, VLY

Track Record

AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
Screener Board Record: 126 closed (hit rate 48%) · 150 open

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $771.56 | 50 SMA $745.89 | 200 SMA $701.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.46
QQQ: $719.77 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $702.56
IWM: $300.21 | 50 SMA $293.20 | 200 SMA $266.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.2
VIX: 15.49 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.617%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$771.56	59.72	60.0	$747.46	Neutral	0.83
QQQ	$719.77	52.10	69.7	$702.56	Bearish	0.33
IWM	$300.21	58.25	32.8	$295.20	Neutral	0.78

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.49	52.62	63.7	$10.83	Neutral	1.15
TNX	46.17	57.17	42.5	-	-	-
GLD	$390.04	51.64	24.0	$368.92	Bearish	2.00
DXY	99.71	32.91	31.1	-	-	-
SLV	$56.09	55.94	14.2	$51.99	Bearish	0.16

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	69.5%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Real Estate	60.7%	0/0
Technology	60.0%	0/0
Energy	36.8%	0/0
Utilities	20.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.20 (5d: -10.0%)
Brent Crude: $79.46 | Spread: $4.26
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.96/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.30
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.73

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.694	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.255	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.344	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.639	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,293,400.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,339,760.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $666.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $773 | Put Wall: $771 (Spot: $771.56)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.62%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
DXY: 99.71
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.6B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,089B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,844 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.4% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 68%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
[INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran warns Persian Gulf states of retaliation if US launches new strikes - Reuters Time: 2026-08-05T19:30:28.423Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
Throughput: 3.1% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost