Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 15:07:54 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +8.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +4.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.70 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.25 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.5 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 15 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 66% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $771.63 | 50 SMA $745.89 | 200 SMA $701.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.55
QQQ: $720.91 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $702.62
IWM: $300.58 | 50 SMA $293.20 | 200 SMA $266.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.22
VIX: 15.51 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.617%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$771.63	59.72	60.0	$747.55	Neutral	0.80
QQQ	$720.91	52.10	69.7	$702.62	Neutral	0.72
IWM	$300.58	58.25	32.8	$295.22	Neutral	0.69

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.51	52.62	63.7	$10.83	Neutral	1.14
TNX	46.17	57.17	42.5	-	-	-
GLD	$390.70	51.64	24.0	$368.62	Neutral	0.88
DXY	99.66	32.38	31.5	-	-	-
SLV	$56.27	55.94	14.2	$51.89	Bearish	0.15

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Health Care	79.6%	0/0
Communication Services	73.7%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	66.1%	0/0
Industrials	65.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Technology	58.5%	0/0
Real Estate	53.6%	0/0
Energy	42.1%	0/0
Utilities	20.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.20 (5d: -10.1%)
Brent Crude: $79.44 | Spread: $4.24
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.96/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.49
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.73

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.696	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.253	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.345	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.64	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,019,176.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,058,633.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $623.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $773 | Put Wall: $771 (Spot: $771.63)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.62%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
DXY: 99.66
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,089B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,346 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.5% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
[INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.38%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD skyrockets above $60, tests 50-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-skyrockets-above-60-tests-50-day-sma-202608051859 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 18:59:38 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[BREAKING] [1] Houthis say they targeted Saudi oil vessel in Gulf of Aden Time: 2026-08-05T18:20:10.479Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
Throughput: 3.1% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost