Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 12:07:49 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.6% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +8.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +4.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.71 normal, SPY/DXY -0.25 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.57 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 15 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 66% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Regime: low — Calm regime — balanced board
Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
Shorts: WTW, VLY

Track Record

AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
Screener Board Record: 126 closed (hit rate 48%) · 150 open

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $770.41 | 50 SMA $745.89 | 200 SMA $701.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.33
QQQ: $720.24 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $703.81
IWM: $300.41 | 50 SMA $293.20 | 200 SMA $266.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.1
VIX: 16.21 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.639%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$770.41	59.72	60.0	$746.33	Neutral	0.84
QQQ	$720.24	52.10	69.7	$703.81	Neutral	0.69
IWM	$300.41	58.25	32.8	$295.10	Neutral	0.70

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.21	52.62	63.7	$10.88	Neutral	1.08
TNX	46.39	57.17	42.5	-	-	-
GLD	$387.82	51.64	24.0	$370.72	Neutral	0.87
DXY	99.74	33.22	30.9	-	-	-
SLV	$55.84	55.94	14.2	$51.96	Bearish	0.18

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Health Care	79.6%	0/0
Communication Services	73.7%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	66.1%	0/0
Industrials	65.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Technology	58.5%	0/0
Real Estate	53.6%	0/0
Energy	42.1%	0/0
Utilities	20.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.49 (5d: -9.7%)
Brent Crude: $79.45 | Spread: $3.96
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.21/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.59
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.76

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.708	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.253	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.351	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.638	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,221,888.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,460,112.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $360.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $770.41)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 99.74
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,089B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,346 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.5% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: DINO — promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 46% (n=125)).
[INFO] Screener: VLO — promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 61/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 46% (n=125)).
[INFO] Screener: LYB — promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 46% (n=125)).
[INFO] Screener: MOG-A — promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 64/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 46% (n=125)).
[INFO] Screener: BIIB — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 46% (n=125)).
[INFO] Screener: PII — promotion-ready (24d on list, HIGH conviction 61/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4986)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.38%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily — 25.0% of normal
Throughput: 17.5% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 340
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS245 (+390% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost