Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 09:04:01 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +2.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.53 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 70% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.27 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.9 sub-20 in contango Β· VVIX/VIX 5.49 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 126 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 145 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $775.13 | 50 SMA $745.89 | 200 SMA $701.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.71
- QQQ: $725.23 | 50 SMA $715.01 | 200 SMA $646.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $703.65
- IWM: $302.60 | 50 SMA $293.20 | 200 SMA $266.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.08
- VIX: 16.87 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.625%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $775.13 | 59.72 | 60.0 | $747.71 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| QQQ | $725.23 | 52.10 | 69.7 | $703.65 | Neutral | 0.51 |
| IWM | $302.60 | 58.25 | 32.8 | $295.08 | Neutral | 0.59 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.87 | 52.62 | 63.7 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| TNX | 46.25 | 57.17 | 42.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $384.36 | 51.64 | 24.0 | $370.96 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| DXY | 99.73 | 33.10 | 31.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.72 | 55.94 | 14.2 | $41.23 | Bearish | 0.39 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 94.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 57.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $76.21 (5d: -8.8%)
- Brent Crude: $80.30 | Spread: $4.09
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.6100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.79/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.52
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.77
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.716 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.265 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.352 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.644 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.53 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $824.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $775.13)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.73
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,854B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,086B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,765B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,290 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.5% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 70%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (91.82) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 15 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 78 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 24 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.39%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Oil: Geopolitics test supply routes - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-geopolitics-test-supply-routes-bny-202608051256 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:56:27 GMT
[2] Strategists lower Euro forecasts, remain skeptical over Yen interventions - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/strategists-lower-euro-forecasts-remain-skeptical-over-yen-interventions-reuters-202608051254 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:54:42 GMT
[3] The US economy is in fine fettle, a Dollar tailwind URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-us-economy-is-in-fine-fettle-a-dollar-tailwind-202608051249 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:49:14 GMT
[4] Gold diggers without mining expertise: ASA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-diggers-without-mining-expertise-asa-202608051248 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:48:18 GMT
[5] Indian Rupee: RBI stance and inflows support Rupee - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-stance-and-inflows-support-rupee-bbh-202608051247 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:47:39 GMT
[6] Stocks explode to record highs, Oil plunges on Hormuz hopes, Bessent eyes agreement URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/stocks-explode-to-record-highs-oil-plunges-on-hormuz-hopes-bessent-eyes-agreement-202608051241 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:41:19 GMT
[7] Brazilian Real: Limited policy easing caps FX impact - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-limited-policy-easing-caps-fx-impact-commerzbank-202608051238 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:38:48 GMT
[8] Canadian Dollar firms as Oil rebounds, USD softens on weaker ADP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-firms-as-oil-rebounds-usd-softens-on-weaker-adp-data-202608051235 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:35:10 GMT
[9] Japanese Yen edges higher after weak US employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-edges-higher-after-weak-us-employment-data-202608051232 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:32:43 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran-Oman Hormuz proposal would drop transit fees for ships - CBS News Time: 2026-08-05T12:38:05.186Z
[2] Vessel sinks off Yemen after attack by uncrewed surface vessel - UKMTO Time: 2026-08-05T12:32:31.321Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 299
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost