Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 20:01:31 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +3.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.53 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 70% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.26 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $772.15 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.89
QQQ: $721.78 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.99
IWM: $302.19 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.07
VIX: 16.50 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.627%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$772.15	53.93	53.0	$747.89	Bearish	13.56
QQQ	$721.78	42.06	61.4	$715.99	Bearish	16.25
IWM	$302.19	52.69	24.0	$294.07	Bearish	0.36

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.50	48.00	63.2	$10.50	Neutral	0.99
TNX	46.27 ▲	59.13	34.5	-	-	-
GLD	$374.24	49.58	24.5	$368.75	Neutral	0.53
DXY	99.89	39.95	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.85	47.33	13.8	$41.17	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	94.0%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Energy	73.7%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.7%	0/0
Technology	61.5%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.14 (5d: -11.0%)
Brent Crude: $78.69 | Spread: $3.55
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8400/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7300/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.60/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.52
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.77

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.717	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.263	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.349	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.643	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 6,979,482.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,714,615.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.53 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $824.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $773 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $772.15)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 99.89
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,854B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,735B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,029 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.7% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 70%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: WTW — promotion-ready (23d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4986)).
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 15 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 78 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 24 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 22 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (17):

[1] Bitcoin on-chain activity surges as Coldcard attack raises security concerns -- K33 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-on-chain-activity-surges-as-coldcard-attack-raises-security-concerns-k33-202608042359 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 23:59:05 GMT

[2] New Zealand Dollar softens below 0.5900 after Unemployment Rate rises to decade high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-softens-below-05900-after-unemployment-rate-rises-to-decade-high-202608042354 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 23:54:50 GMT

[3] Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) meets forecasts (3.4%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-labor-cash-earnings-yoy-meets-forecasts-34-in-june-202608042330 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 23:30:01 GMT

[4] Gold edges lower below $4,100 as markets focus on US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-edges-lower-below-4-100-as-markets-focus-on-us-iran-talks-202608042325 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 23:25:05 GMT

[5] Australia S&P Global Services PMI came in at 53.6, above expectations (53) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-services-pmi-came-in-at-536-above-expectations-53-in-july-202608042300 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 23:00:01 GMT

[6] Australia S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 53.2 above expectations (52.6) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-composite-pmi-registered-at-532-above-expectations-526-in-july-202608042300 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 23:00:00 GMT

[7] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebound stalls below 200-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-rebound-stalls-below-200-day-sma-202608042247 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:47:45 GMT

[8] New Zealand's Unemployment Rate climbs to 5.6% in Q2 vs. 5.4% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealands-unemployment-rate-climbs-to-56-in-q2-vs-54-expected-202608042246 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:46:13 GMT

[9] New Zealand Participation Rate came in at 70.7%, above expectations (70.3%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-participation-rate-came-in-at-707-above-expectations-703-in-2q-202608042245 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:45:04 GMT

[10] New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above expectations (2%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-labour-cost-index-yoy-came-in-at-21-above-expectations-2-in-2q-202608042245 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:45:03 GMT

[11] New Zealand Unemployment Rate above forecasts (5.4%) in 2Q: Actual (5.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-unemployment-rate-above-forecasts-54-in-2q-actual-56-202608042245 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:45:02 GMT

[12] New Zealand Employment Change came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.2%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-employment-change-came-in-at-05-above-expectations-02-in-2q-202608042245 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:45:02 GMT

[13] New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) above forecasts (0.6%) in 2Q: Actual (0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-labour-cost-index-qoq-above-forecasts-06-in-2q-actual-07-202608042245 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:45:01 GMT

[14] The treasury's currency gamble URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-treasurys-currency-gamble-202608042235 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:35:50 GMT

[15] New Zealand Dollar climbs ahead of NZ employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-climbs-ahead-of-nz-employment-data-202608042228 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:28:57 GMT

[16] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Trendline break puts 50-day SMA in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-trendline-break-puts-50-day-sma-in-focus-202608042227 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:27:07 GMT

[17] SpaceX delivers stronger than expected results, but the share price tumbles URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spacex-delivers-stronger-than-expected-results-but-the-share-price-tumbles-202608042213 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:13:25 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iranian commentator outlines Strait of Hormuz compensation mechanism Time: 2026-08-04T23:26:07.162Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 12.0% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 299
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.4 billion/day economic cost