Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 16:08:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +3.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.53 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 69% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.47% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.73 normal, SPY/DXY -0.27 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: VLY, TSCO
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 118 closed (hit rate 50%) Β· 148 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.29 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.89
- QQQ: $724.12 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.99
- IWM: $302.09 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.08
- VIX: 16.40 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.627%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.29 | 53.93 | 53.0 | $747.89 | Bearish | 11.92 |
| QQQ | $724.12 | 42.06 | 61.4 | $715.99 | Bearish | 12.62 |
| IWM | $302.09 | 52.69 | 24.0 | $294.08 | Neutral | 0.61 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.40 | 48.00 | 63.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| TNX | 46.27 β² | 59.13 | 34.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.21 | 49.58 | 24.5 | $368.75 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| DXY | 99.89 | 39.96 | 34.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.86 | 47.33 | 13.8 | $41.17 | Bearish | 0.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 94.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 69.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 57.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $75.86 (5d: -10.2%)
- Brent Crude: $79.41 | Spread: $3.55
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.44/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.52
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.77
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.734 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.27 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.343 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.641 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.48
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 6,947,799.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,681,735.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.53 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $819.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $773 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $772.29)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.89
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,842B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,069B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,736B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,107 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.7% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 69%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.38%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] Nothing Britain does moves the Pound against the Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nothing-britain-does-moves-the-pound-against-the-dollar-202608041954 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 19:54:36 GMT
[2] Forex Today: Oil extends collapse on Hormuz reopening reports, Silver surges URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-oil-extends-collapse-on-hormuz-reopening-reports-silver-surges-202608041951 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 19:51:39 GMT
[3] Singapore Dollar: Gains risk watched below 1.2790 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-gains-risk-watched-below-12790-against-us-dollar-uob-202608041951 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 19:51:00 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 13.6% of normal
- Throughput: 12.0% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 299
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost