Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 11:52:54 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +3.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.51 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.47% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.26 normal, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.52 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -4.0% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 65% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $768.87 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.88
QQQ: $719.36 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.43
IWM: $300.82 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.8
VIX: 16.31 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.627%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$768.87	53.93	53.0	$758.88	Bearish	0.40
QQQ	$719.36	42.06	61.4	$695.43	Neutral	0.52
IWM	$300.82	52.69	24.0	$294.80	Bearish	0.41

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.31	48.00	63.2	$10.50	Neutral	1.07
TNX	46.27 ▲	59.13	34.5	-	-	-
GLD	$374.86	49.58	24.5	$368.71	Bearish	0.49
DXY	99.91	40.23	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.98	47.33	13.8	$51.69	Bearish	0.35

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 492
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.4%	0/0
Health Care	84.9%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Industrials	65.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	58.8%	0/0
Energy	57.9%	0/0
Technology	57.8%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	56.9%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Real Estate	48.1%	0/0
Utilities	20.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.64 (5d: -10.4%)
Brent Crude: $78.98 | Spread: $3.34
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.52/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.31
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.72

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.784	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.258	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.322	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.638	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.48
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,169,186.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,616,603.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.51 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $367.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $765 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $768.87)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 99.91
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,846B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,069B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,740B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,870 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -4.0% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: APH — promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 72/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=116)).
[INFO] Screener: FTI — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=116)).
[INFO] Screener: CLH — promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4862)).
[INFO] Screener: JLL — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=116)).
[INFO] Screener: DINO — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=116)).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.32%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $2.99 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] United States 52-Week Bill Auction up to 3.88% from previous 3.86% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-52-week-bill-auction-up-to-388-from-previous-386-202608041532 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 15:32:28 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 13.3% of normal (1.4M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 350
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.8 billion/day economic cost