Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 00:01:28 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.47% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.28 normal, SPY/TNX -0.21 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $758.05 | 50 SMA $744.99 | 200 SMA $700.39 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.12
- QQQ: $701.00 | 50 SMA $715.09 | 200 SMA $645.04 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $680.82
- IWM: $296.66 | 50 SMA $292.49 | 200 SMA $265.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.82
- VIX: 15.86 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.686%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $758.05 | 48.39 | 46.8 | $743.12 | Bearish | 2.38 |
| QQQ | $701.00 | 40.06 | 60.3 | $680.82 | Bearish | 0.21 |
| IWM | $296.66 | 45.89 | 15.0 | $291.82 | Neutral | 0.65 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.86 | 46.47 | 63.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| TNX | 46.86 | 63.13 | 24.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.88 | 53.82 | 26.9 | $371.22 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 99.96 | 35.53 | 34.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.57 | 50.70 | 14.7 | $52.00 | Bearish | 0.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 91.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 87.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $80.06 (5d: +1.0%)
- Brent Crude: $83.51 | Spread: $3.45
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.86/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.79
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.85 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.278 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.207 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.594 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.48
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,590,893.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,977,280.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $758.05)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.69%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.96
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,846B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,069B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,739B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,736 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 66%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +1.35%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (β17.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.70 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.81 (β3.5% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.5% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.96 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 110.50, but remains capped below key resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-rebounds-above-11050-but-remains-capped-below-key-resistance-202608040400 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 04:00:02 GMT
[2] USD/JPY Price Forecast: A short-term respite likely to near 160.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-a-short-term-respite-likely-to-near-16000-202608040355 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 03:55:04 GMT
[3] Crypto Overview: GRAM declines as iOS removes Telegram, SOL rises on new catalysts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-overview-gram-declines-as-ios-removes-telegram-sol-rises-on-new-catalysts-202608040343 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 03:43:31 GMT
[4] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near 181.50 after rebounding from eight-month lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-trades-near-18150-after-rebounding-from-eight-month-highs-202608040335 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 03:35:55 GMT
[5] Japan's Katayama declines to comment on effectiveness of joint intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-declines-to-comment-on-effectiveness-of-joint-intervention-202608040330 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 03:30:47 GMT
[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD lacks bullish conviction amid US-Iran impasse, ahead of US jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-lacks-bullish-conviction-amid-us-iran-impasse-ahead-of-us-jobs-data-202608040258 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 02:58:55 GMT
[7] Japan Economy Minister Kiuchi: Pass-through of rising costs has been limited so far URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-economy-minister-kiuch-pass-through-of-rising-costs-has-been-limited-so-far-202608040244 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 02:44:20 GMT
[8] United States Dollar Index (DXY) steadies around 100.00 as US-Iran tensions lend support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-dxy-steadies-around-10000-as-us-iran-tensions-lend-support-202608040229 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 02:29:54 GMT
[9] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains above $58.50 on US-Iran talk signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-gains-above-5850-on-us-iran-talk-signals-202608040226 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 02:26:10 GMT
[10] New Zealand Dollar softens below 0.5900 on US-Iran talks uncertainty, stronger US PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-softens-below-05900-on-us-iran-talks-uncertainty-stronger-us-pmi-data-202608040209 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 02:09:10 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Conflicting accounts cloud Iran-US diplomatic push Time: 2026-08-04T02:58:00.000Z
[2] Hormuz traffic remains subdued despite diplomatic push Time: 2026-08-04T02:23:00.000Z
[3] Democratic lawmaker accuses Trump of hiding Iran war details Time: 2026-08-04T01:40:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 30.0% of normal (3.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 455
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost