Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-03 11:45:13 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.456 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.85 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +7.0% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.19 normal, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 141 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.79 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -4.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 87/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 66% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $755.62 | 50 SMA $744.99 | 200 SMA $700.39 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.93
QQQ: $697.07 | 50 SMA $715.09 | 200 SMA $645.04 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $683.53
IWM: $295.67 | 50 SMA $292.49 | 200 SMA $265.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.96
VIX: 15.65 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.680%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$755.62	48.39	46.8	$743.93	Neutral	0.95
QQQ	$697.07	40.06	60.3	$683.53	Bearish	0.35
IWM	$295.67	45.89	15.0	$291.96	Neutral	0.62

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.65	46.47	63.3	$10.50	Neutral	1.05
TNX	46.80	63.13	24.9	-	-	-
GLD	$370.31	53.82	26.9	$370.89	Neutral	1.19
DXY	99.95	35.34	33.9	-	-	-
SLV	$51.86	50.70	14.7	$37.79	Neutral	0.77

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.74B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.3%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	90.9%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Consumer Staples	73.5%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	69.0%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Industrials	65.7%	0/0
Real Estate	60.7%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Technology	47.7%	0/0
Utilities	20.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $79.70 (5d: +0.6%)
Brent Crude: $83.95 | Spread: $4.25
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
Heating Oil: $3.9200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.90/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.12
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.07

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.902	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.302	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.194	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.595	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,017,101.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,719,621.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $282.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $755.62)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.68%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
DXY: 99.95
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,857B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,087B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,769B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,531 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] SKEW at 141 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -4.5% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: CLH — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=62)).
[INFO] Screener: JLL — promotion-ready (4d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=62)).
[INFO] Screener: DINO — promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=62)).
[INFO] Screener: AMT — promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=62)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.24%
Median Return: +0.85%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.70 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.81 (↓3.5% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.4% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.96 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Australian Dollar slips after upbeat US ISM Manufacturing data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-slips-after-upbeat-us-ism-manufacturing-data-202608031522 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 15:22:42 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Pakistan to invite Araghchi, Ghalibaf to Islamabad - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-08-03T15:16:15.149Z

[2] Araghchi holds phone calls with Pakistani, Omani counterparts Time: 2026-08-03T15:14:21.759Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 156 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 20.0% of normal
Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 455
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 58.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $6.2 billion/day economic cost