Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-03 10:13:09 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.456 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.72 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 141 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.72 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -4.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 87/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 66% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $753.88 | 50 SMA $744.99 | 200 SMA $700.39 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.22
- QQQ: $692.68 | 50 SMA $715.09 | 200 SMA $645.04 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $683.71
- IWM: $295.48 | 50 SMA $292.49 | 200 SMA $265.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.74
- VIX: 15.95 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.688%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $753.88 | 48.39 | 46.8 | $743.22 | Bearish | 0.31 |
| QQQ | $692.68 | 40.06 | 60.3 | $683.71 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| IWM | $295.48 | 45.89 | 15.0 | $291.74 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.95 | 46.47 | 63.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.01 |
| TNX | 46.88 β² | 63.13 | 24.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $369.65 | 53.82 | 26.9 | $370.90 | Neutral | 1.33 |
| DXY | 99.77 | 32.10 | 32.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.70 | 50.70 | 14.7 | $40.35 | Neutral | 0.83 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.74B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 90.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 69.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 47.7% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $79.12 (5d: -0.2%)
- Brent Crude: $83.13 | Spread: $4.01
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.92/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.90
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.02
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.896 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.375 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.141 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.584 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 935,279.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 676,371.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.72 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $121.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $754 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $753.88)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.69%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.77
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,857B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,087B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,769B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,531 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 141 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -4.5% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 66%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 14 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.84) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 77 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 23 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.24%
- Median Return: +0.85%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (β17.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.70 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.81 (β3.5% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.96 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid above expectations (70.3) in July: Actual (71.1) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-prices-paid-above-expectations-703-in-july-actual-711-202608031400 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:00:02 GMT
[2] United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index rose from previous 56 to 56.7 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-new-orders-index-rose-from-previous-56-to-567-in-july-202608031400 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:00:02 GMT
[3] United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6, above forecasts (54) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-556-above-forecasts-54-in-july-202608031400 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:00:02 GMT
[4] United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index up to 52.8 in July from previous 49.7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-employment-index-up-to-528-in-july-from-previous-497-202608031400 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:00:01 GMT
[5] Hong Kong: Growth seen moderating - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-growth-seen-moderating-uob-202608031359 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 13:59:00 GMT
[6] China: Growth momentum softens again - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-growth-momentum-softens-again-standard-chartered-202608031348 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 13:48:03 GMT
[7] United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.9, above forecasts (53.8) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-539-above-forecasts-538-in-july-202608031345 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 13:45:02 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Oil prices tumble over 6% on hopes for deal to end Iran war - CBS Time: 2026-08-03T13:59:15.532Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 156 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 17.0% of normal
- Throughput: 17.0% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 455
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 43.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS404 (+708% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost