Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-02 20:00:53 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +2.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.456 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 0.97 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.08 normal, SPY/Oil -0.54 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 141 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and breadth leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.456 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $744.39 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.47
- QQQ: $684.61 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $670.95
- IWM: $289.81 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.81
- VIX: 15.99 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.745%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $744.39 | 40.07 | 44.9 | $743.47 | Bearish | 0.38 |
| QQQ | $684.61 | 33.71 | 60.9 | $670.95 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| IWM | $289.81 | 44.11 | 14.8 | $292.81 | Bearish | 6.65 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.99 | 55.85 | 61.8 | $10.51 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| TNX | 47.45 | 59.87 | 19.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $370.58 | 50.12 | 25.7 | $371.84 | Neutral | 1.22 |
| DXY | 99.80 | 29.35 | 38.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.07 | 48.49 | 14.2 | $40.46 | Bearish | 0.41 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.74B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 60/67 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 45/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 22/34 |
| Industrials | 59.7% | 40/67 |
| Real Estate | 57.1% | 16/28 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 33/59 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 13/24 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 32/65 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 5/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.80 (5d: +5.1%)
- Brent Crude: $90.12 | Spread: $3.32
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.62/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.55
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.06
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.958 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.417 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.078 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.543 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,958,949.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,828,008.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $731.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $744.39)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.75%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.80
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,852B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,063B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,740B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,490 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 141 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 63%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 13 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 76 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 22 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 20 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.54%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (β17.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.77 (β3.8% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (β0.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] OPEC+ agrees to boost September production by 188,000 barrels per day URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/opec-agrees-to-boost-september-production-by-188-000-barrels-per-day-202608022343 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 23:43:33 GMT
[2] Australian Dollar gathers strength to near 0.7050 as Trump cancels Iran strikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gathers-strength-to-near-07050-as-trump-cancels-iran-strikes-202608022332 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 23:32:20 GMT
[3] New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -4% to -3.6% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-building-permits-sa-mom-climbed-from-previous-4-to-36-in-june-202608022245 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 22:45:01 GMT
[4] Middle East War updates: Trump holds off Iran strikes on pledge Hormuz deal is close URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/middle-east-war-updates-trump-holds-off-iran-strikes-on-pledge-hormuz-deal-is-close-202608022237 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 22:37:57 GMT
[5] Weekly column: Eclipse season volatility and Middle East geopolitics URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-column-eclipse-season-volatility-and-middle-east-geopolitics-202608022156 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 21:56:43 GMT
[6] The true US Dollar Index hits an all-time COT extreme as the Euro confirms the signal [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-true-us-dollar-index-hits-an-all-time-cot-extreme-as-the-euro-confirms-the-signal-video-202608022154 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 21:54:12 GMT
[7] The biggest one-day market cap increase ever URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-biggest-one-day-market-cap-increase-ever-202608022151 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 21:51:20 GMT
[8] Paulson: We're still in the early stages of a old bull market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/paulson-were-still-in-the-early-stages-of-a-old-bull-market-202608022148 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 21:48:38 GMT
[9] It's raining Gold in Antarctica URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/its-raining-gold-in-antarctica-202608022147 Published: Sun, 02 Aug 2026 21:47:41 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] Diplomatic window reopens as shadow of Iran war lingers Time: 2026-08-02T23:58:19.224Z
[2] UKMTO reports explosion near tanker off Oman Time: 2026-08-02T22:57:00.000Z
[3] Araghchi spoke with Iraqi counterpart - IRIB Time: 2026-08-02T22:24:51.781Z
[BREAKING] [4] Trump says Iran talks to begin Monday, predicts nuclear deal Time: 2026-08-02T22:05:30.412Z
[5] Araghchi says Saudi, Pakistani leaders back regional political solutions Time: 2026-08-02T21:44:00.000Z
[6] Saudi, Iranian foreign ministers discuss de-escalation Time: 2026-08-02T20:35:00.000Z
[7] Crew of Iranian ship hit in Ukrainian attack returns to Iran - ISNA Time: 2026-08-02T19:31:26.420Z
[8] Iran president says US must be compelled to honor MoU Time: 2026-08-02T19:07:03.129Z
[9] Trump proposal seeks US-Iran talks, Hormuz reopening - AP Time: 2026-08-02T19:04:17.227Z
[10] Qatar, Saudi pressure led Trump to halt Iran strike - Channel 12 Time: 2026-08-02T18:34:34.261Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 155 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 380
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $15.2 billion/day economic cost