Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 17:02:46 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +2.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.97 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 63% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.04 normal, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Regime: low — Calm regime — balanced board
Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
Shorts: VLY, TSCO

Track Record

AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
Screener Board Record: 105 closed (hit rate 52%) · 141 open

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $745.16 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.47
QQQ: $685.90 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $670.95
IWM: $290.53 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.81
VIX: 15.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.745%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$745.16	40.07	44.9	$743.47	Bearish	0.38
QQQ	$685.90	33.71	60.9	$670.95	Neutral	0.69
IWM	$290.53	44.11	14.8	$292.81	Bearish	6.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.99	55.85	61.8	$10.51	Neutral	1.00
TNX	47.45	59.87	19.7	-	-	-
GLD	$370.85	50.12	25.7	$371.84	Neutral	1.22
DXY	99.70	28.56	39.6	-	-	-
SLV	$52.02	48.49	14.2	$40.46	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Industrials	59.7%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.56 (5d: +2.4%)
Brent Crude: $90.12 | Spread: $5.56
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.34/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.55
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.06

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.963	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.422	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.035	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.534	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,958,949.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,828,008.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $731.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $745.16)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.75%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
DXY: 99.70
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,857B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,021B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,859 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 63%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 — institutional demand weakening.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.54%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.77 (↓3.8% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (↑0.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] US forces redirected 30 vessels during Iran blockade - CENTCOM Time: 2026-07-31T20:52:21.844Z

[2] Iran war driving global instability, UN chief says Time: 2026-07-31T20:47:11.073Z

[3] US should leave the table on Iran, lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-31T20:39:36.984Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 11.4% of normal
Throughput: 8.6% of normal (0.9M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 147
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 58.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost