Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 12:15:09 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.10 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.44 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.41 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.77
- QQQ: $685.20 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $677.84
- IWM: $290.11 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.84
- VIX: 17.17 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.735%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.41 | 40.07 | 44.9 | $738.77 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| QQQ | $685.20 | 33.71 | 60.9 | $677.84 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| IWM | $290.11 | 44.11 | 14.8 | $292.84 | Bearish | 5.86 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.17 | 55.85 | 61.8 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.90 |
| TNX | 47.35 | 59.87 | 19.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.08 | 50.12 | 25.7 | $368.32 | Neutral | 0.81 |
| DXY | 100.05 | 31.96 | 38.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.92 | 48.49 | 14.2 | $52.09 | Neutral | 0.85 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 88.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.2% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 64.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 36.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.29 (5d: +2.0%)
- Brent Crude: $89.91 | Spread: $5.62
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.89/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.94
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.961 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.405 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.102 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.547 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,757,810.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,834,673.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $415.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $743.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.74%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.05
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,718 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 64%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β institutional demand weakening.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.51%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (β17.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.77 (β3.8% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (β0.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] WTI Oil recovers above $83 ahead of OPEC meeting URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-recovers-above-83-ahead-of-opec-meeting-202607311611 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 16:11:28 GMT
[2] USD/CAD turns bearish as five waves unfold from the highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-cad-turns-bearish-as-five-waves-unfold-from-the-highs-202607311611 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 16:11:13 GMT
[3] FTSE 100 drops back and Oil prices gain URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ftse-100-drops-back-and-oil-prices-gain-202607311610 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 16:10:30 GMT
[4] Australian Dollar holds despite weak Chinese PMIs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-despite-weak-chinese-pmis-202607311605 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 16:05:14 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 17.0% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 275
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS420 (+740% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost