Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 11:00:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.04 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.40 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.13 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 62% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.08 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.53
- QQQ: $685.51 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $677.85
- IWM: $290.19 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.83
- VIX: 17.45 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.729%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.08 | 40.07 | 44.9 | $738.53 | Neutral | 1.03 |
| QQQ | $685.51 | 33.71 | 60.9 | $677.85 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| IWM | $290.19 | 44.11 | 14.8 | $292.83 | Bearish | 5.50 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.45 | 55.85 | 61.8 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 47.29 | 59.87 | 19.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.24 | 50.12 | 25.7 | $352.12 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| DXY | 100.21 | 35.10 | 40.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.07 | 48.49 | 14.2 | $52.06 | Neutral | 0.68 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 59.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 53.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.49 (5d: +3.5%)
- Brent Crude: $90.04 | Spread: $4.55
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.67/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.86
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.96
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.961 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.403 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.126 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.546 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,709,471.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,779,254.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.04 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $258.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.08)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.73%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.04 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.21
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,519 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 62%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Screener: WRB β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1228)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: DOW β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: VLO β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 75/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: BMY β promotion-ready (12d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)).
- [INFO] Screener: BMY β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: LIN β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2388)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: FR β promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=62)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (β17.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.97 (β5.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (β0.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Bank of Canada: Strong GDP lowers cut risk - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-canada-strong-gdp-lowers-cut-risk-td-securities-202607311459 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:59:13 GMT
[2] Colombia National Jobless Rate came in at 8% below forecasts (8.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/colombia-national-jobless-rate-came-in-at-8-below-forecasts-81-in-june-202607311456 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:56:22 GMT
[3] Gold Weekly Forecast: Bull hesitancy persists despite weaker US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-bull-hesitancy-persists-despite-weaker-us-dollar-202607311454 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:54:00 GMT
[4] Japanese Yen: Intervention slows but does not reverse trend - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-slows-but-does-not-reverse-trend-ing-202607311446 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:46:25 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran says Strait of Hormuz remains closed Time: 2026-07-31T14:45:11.181Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 17.0% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 147
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost