Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 10:38:41 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 62% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +8.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.5 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.35 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 62% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $741.21 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.51
QQQ: $685.01 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $677.83
IWM: $289.98 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.83
VIX: 17.54 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.726%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$741.21	40.07	44.9	$738.51	Neutral	1.10
QQQ	$685.01	33.71	60.9	$677.83	Neutral	1.00
IWM	$289.98	44.11	14.8	$292.83	Bearish	5.96

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.54	55.85	61.8	$10.51	Neutral	0.85
TNX	47.26	59.87	19.7	-	-	-
GLD	$370.68	50.12	25.7	$368.38	Neutral	0.83
DXY	100.32	36.91	41.7	-	-	-
SLV	$51.94	48.49	14.2	$52.07	Neutral	0.81

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	86.6%	0/0
Health Care	74.1%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Industrials	61.2%	0/0
Technology	59.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	58.8%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Real Estate	53.6%	0/0
Communication Services	45.0%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $85.17 (5d: +3.1%)
Brent Crude: $89.96 | Spread: $4.79
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.57/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.74
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.96

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.962	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.409	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.149	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.55	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,408,835.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,553,407.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $219.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $741.21)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.73%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.04 (Normal)
DXY: 100.32
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,519 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 62%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Screener: WRB — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1228)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: DOW — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: VLO — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 75/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: BMY — promotion-ready (12d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)).
[INFO] Screener: BMY — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: LIN — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2388)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: FR — promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 45% (n=62)).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.53%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.97 (↓5.7% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (↑0.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (6):

[1] United States: Broad-based Q2 GDP strength beyond AI - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-broad-based-q2-gdp-strength-beyond-ai-td-securities-202607311405 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:05:20 GMT

[2] What is an ETF? A complete guide to exchange -Traded funds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/what-is-an-etf-a-complete-guide-to-exchange-traded-funds-202607311401 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:01:17 GMT

[3] United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations in line with forecasts (4.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-1-year-consumer-inflation-expectations-in-line-with-forecasts-42-in-july-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:20 GMT

[4] United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index above expectations (54) in July: Actual (55.4) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-expectations-index-above-expectations-54-in-july-actual-554-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:16 GMT

[5] United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (54) in July: Actual (55.2) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-above-expectations-54-in-july-actual-552-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:09 GMT

[6] United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.3%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-5-year-consumer-inflation-expectation-in-line-with-forecasts-33-in-july-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:04 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 12.4% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 500
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost