Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 10:25:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.3% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.17 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.21 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but dark pool haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 62% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.23 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.49
- QQQ: $682.51 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $677.84
- IWM: $288.88 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.83
- VIX: 18.08 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.725%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.23 | 40.07 | 44.9 | $738.49 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| QQQ | $682.51 | 33.71 | 60.9 | $677.84 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| IWM | $288.88 | 44.11 | 14.8 | $292.83 | Bearish | 8.63 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.08 | 55.85 | 61.8 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| TNX | 47.25 | 59.87 | 19.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $370.10 | 50.12 | 25.7 | $368.41 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| DXY | 100.36 | 37.67 | 42.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.85 | 48.49 | 14.2 | $52.08 | Neutral | 0.88 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 59.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 53.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.16 (5d: +3.1%)
- Brent Crude: $89.96 | Spread: $4.80
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.58/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.38
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.98
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.962 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.422 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.168 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.55 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,170,319.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,407,306.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $190.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $739.23)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.72%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.04 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.36
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,519 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 62%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β institutional demand weakening.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (β17.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.97 (β5.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (β0.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] United States: Broad-based Q2 GDP strength beyond AI - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-broad-based-q2-gdp-strength-beyond-ai-td-securities-202607311405 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:05:20 GMT
[2] What is an ETF? A complete guide to exchange -Traded funds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/what-is-an-etf-a-complete-guide-to-exchange-traded-funds-202607311401 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:01:17 GMT
[3] United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations in line with forecasts (4.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-1-year-consumer-inflation-expectations-in-line-with-forecasts-42-in-july-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:20 GMT
[4] United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index above expectations (54) in July: Actual (55.4) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-expectations-index-above-expectations-54-in-july-actual-554-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:16 GMT
[5] United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (54) in July: Actual (55.2) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-above-expectations-54-in-july-actual-552-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:09 GMT
[6] United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.3%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-5-year-consumer-inflation-expectation-in-line-with-forecasts-33-in-july-202607311400 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:00:04 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 12.4% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 500
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost