Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-30 13:51:02 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +6.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 64% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.95 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.56 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.0% yen strengthening, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Moderate divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 5 signals disagree with price.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 6.2B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $739.86 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $735.95
QQQ: $682.35 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.39
IWM: $291.25 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.93
VIX: 17.95 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.669%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$739.86	30.74	36.5	$735.95	Neutral	1.32
QQQ	$682.35	21.82	52.1	$673.39	Neutral	0.83
IWM	$291.25	33.40	8.3	$290.93	Bearish	2.87

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.95	66.24	44.2	$10.51	Neutral	0.74
TNX	46.69	58.92	20.4	-	-	-
GLD	$376.36	43.79	24.3	$368.38	Bearish	0.28
DXY	99.90	35.91	44.3	-	-	-
SLV	$53.09	41.11	13.2	$52.07	Bearish	0.48

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.18B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.3%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	88.1%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Real Estate	71.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Energy	57.9%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	57.6%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Communication Services	55.0%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Utilities	40.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.07 (5d: -5.9%)
Brent Crude: $89.26 | Spread: $5.19
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1400/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.37/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.58
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.04

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.955	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.355	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.149	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.559	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.18
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,048,713.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,334,896.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $472.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $733 (Spot: $739.86)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.67%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 99.90
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.6B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,915B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,792B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,806 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 12 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 75 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 21 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 20 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_underlying_price has printed the same value (745.9425) for 20 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_flow_dex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.49%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Earnings:

AAPL: EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
AMZN: EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.5% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (3):

[1] SOX Index rebounds from key Fibonacci target: Is a rally toward $13,500 next? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sox-index-rebounds-from-key-fibonacci-target-is-a-rally-toward-13-500-next-202607301744 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 17:44:50 GMT

[2] Eurozone pulls level with the US URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eurozone-pulls-level-with-the-us-202607301743 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 17:43:35 GMT

[3] China lights Fort Knox Gold revaluation fuse [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/china-lights-fort-knox-gold-revaluation-fuse-video-202607301741 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 17:41:41 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 152 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 11.3% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 335
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost