Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-30 12:19:59 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +6.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.95 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.20 normal, SPY/Oil -0.56 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 5 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 6.2B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.14 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $735.94
- QQQ: $682.40 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $668.88
- IWM: $290.92 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.94
- VIX: 18.15 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.659%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.14 | 30.74 | 36.5 | $735.94 | Neutral | 1.44 |
| QQQ | $682.40 | 21.82 | 52.1 | $668.88 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| IWM | $290.92 | 33.40 | 8.3 | $290.94 | Bearish | 3.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.15 | 66.24 | 44.2 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| TNX | 46.59 | 58.92 | 20.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.41 | 43.79 | 24.3 | $368.39 | Bearish | 0.25 |
| DXY | 99.97 | 36.53 | 41.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.20 | 41.11 | 13.2 | $52.07 | Bearish | 0.47 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.18B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 85.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 83.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.24 (5d: -5.7%)
- Brent Crude: $89.92 | Spread: $5.68
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.20/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.47
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.08
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.955 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.352 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.197 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.562 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,333,365.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,515,712.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $358.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $733 (Spot: $739.14)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.97
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,915B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,809B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,915B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,639B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,697 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] SPY (736.23) reclaimed ZGL (735.95) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (735.71) dropped below ZGL (735.95) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: SMG β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=3955)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: RVTY β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1184)). Worth a look.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-OFF to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β institutional demand weakening.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.48%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 31865.721 | Prev: 31422.526
Earnings:
- AAPL: EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN: EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] DΓ©jΓ Vu at the Fed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/deja-vu-at-the-fed-202607301612 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 16:12:11 GMT
[2] WTI - Buy trade idea [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-buy-trade-idea-video-202607301611 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 16:11:05 GMT
[3] Stock markets stage an impressive recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stock-markets-stage-an-impressive-recovery-202607301609 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 16:09:57 GMT
[4] Bank of England review: Policy outlook highly dependent on situation in Middle East URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bank-of-england-review-policy-outlook-highly-dependent-on-situation-in-middle-east-202607301609 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 16:09:07 GMT
[5] The NASDAQ 100 rallies on one earnings report while the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moves URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-nasdaq-100-rallies-on-one-earnings-report-while-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-barely-moves-202607301604 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 16:04:30 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 152 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 335
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS680 (+1260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $15.2 billion/day economic cost