Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-29 16:32:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.6% (3d) | Alignment: 22% (2 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.397 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.33 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.93 normal, SPY/DXY -0.15 normal, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched |
| Volatility | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | VIX 20.7 moderate Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.30 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 13 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: SPY in free-fall but gamma, breadth, and energy refuse to confirm (7 of 9 divergent) β washout exhaustion or false floor, resolution within days.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF β DIX below threshold (0.397) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.397; GEX positive at 4.0B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 20.7 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: IFF, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 93 closed (hit rate 57%) Β· 133 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $727.48 | 50 SMA $744.86 | 200 SMA $699.23 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.91
- QQQ: $659.17 | 50 SMA $716.75 | 200 SMA $643.88 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.65
- IWM: $287.48 | 50 SMA $291.57 | 200 SMA $265.13 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.63
- VIX: 20.66 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.622%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $727.48 | 45.69 | 37.5 | $743.91 | Bearish | 7.20 |
| QQQ | $659.17 | 33.24 | 56.9 | $677.65 | Bearish | 7.92 |
| IWM | $287.48 | 49.78 | 0.0 | $294.63 | Bearish | 11.90 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.66 | 54.87 | 39.7 | $11.04 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| TNX | 46.22 | 53.67 | 20.6 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.00 | 45.71 | 25.2 | $371.77 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| DXY | 100.93 | 49.91 | 17.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.78 | 46.12 | 13.3 | $38.38 | Neutral | 0.69 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.397
- DIX Signal: Selling pressure
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.99B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 83.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 82.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 69.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 65.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 44.6% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.85 (5d: -8.0%)
- Brent Crude: $90.73 | Spread: $5.88
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.67/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.65
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.93
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.933 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.154 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.366 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.584 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,322,143.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,415,300.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.33 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $564.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $727.48)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.62%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.93
- Growth vs Value: 0.91
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.16% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 13/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,915B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,809B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,915B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,639B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,449 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY (740.08) dropped below ZGL (741.49) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (741.61) reclaimed ZGL (741.44) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β institutional demand weakening.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-OFF.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.433 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.42%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000
Earnings:
- MSFT: EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META: EPS Est. $7.40 (β1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] Silver holds firm as Dollar slides after split Fed decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-holds-firm-as-dollar-slides-after-split-fed-decision-202607292024 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 20:24:50 GMT
[2] No soft target: Warsh vows to return inflation to 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/no-soft-target-warsh-vows-to-return-inflation-to-2-202607292011 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 20:11:49 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 151 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 394
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS250 (+400% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost