Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-29 10:18:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.397 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.24 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 72% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.94 normal, SPY/DXY -0.56 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.27 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 13 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: SPY in free-fall but gamma, breadth, and energy refuse to confirm (7 of 8 divergent) β washout exhaustion or false floor, resolution within days.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF β DIX below threshold (0.397) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.397; GEX positive at 4.0B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 72% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $735.56 | 50 SMA $744.86 | 200 SMA $699.23 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.84
- QQQ: $669.51 | 50 SMA $716.75 | 200 SMA $643.88 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.83
- IWM: $290.42 | 50 SMA $291.57 | 200 SMA $265.13 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.04
- VIX: 19.69 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.629%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $735.56 | 45.69 | 37.5 | $743.84 | Bearish | 2.53 |
| QQQ | $669.51 | 33.24 | 56.9 | $677.83 | Bearish | 2.66 |
| IWM | $290.42 | 49.78 | 0.0 | $294.04 | Bearish | 4.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.69 | 54.87 | 39.7 | $10.86 | Neutral | 0.66 |
| TNX | 46.29 βΌ | 53.67 | 20.6 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.25 | 45.71 | 25.2 | $371.49 | Bearish | 1.50 |
| DXY | 101.38 | 56.89 | 13.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.52 | 46.12 | 13.3 | $52.56 | Neutral | 1.08 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.397
- DIX Signal: Selling pressure
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.99B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 71.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 487
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 79.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 76.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 65.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $84.48 (5d: -8.4%)
- Brent Crude: $89.67 | Spread: $5.19
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.08/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.01
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.91
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.937 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.564 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.4 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.532 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 483,777.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 597,903.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $79.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $735.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.38
- Growth vs Value: 0.91
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.16% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 13/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,764B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,905B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,586B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,206 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.397) despite calm surface (VIX 19.7, breadth 72%).
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY (740.26) dropped below ZGL (741.84) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β institutional demand weakening.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-OFF.
- [INFO] SPY (741.36) reclaimed ZGL (740.61) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.49%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000
Earnings:
- MSFT: EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META: EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.3% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Bitcoin muted as markets fret over Fed, crypto bill URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-muted-as-markets-fret-over-fed-crypto-bill-202607291413 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:13:57 GMT
[2] When good fundamentals aren't enough URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-good-fundamentals-arent-enough-202607291405 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:05:21 GMT
[3] Natural gas: Europe faces tighter winter balance - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-europe-faces-tighter-winter-balance-ing-202607291401 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:01:29 GMT
[4] Federal Reserve set to hold interest rates steady, yet a hike can't be ruled out URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-set-to-hold-interest-rates-steady-yet-a-hike-cant-be-ruled-out-202607291400 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:00:00 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 151 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.0% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 382
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost