Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-29 06:01:12 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.397 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 73% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +2.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.93 normal, SPY/DXY -0.60 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 18.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.41 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 14 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF — DIX below threshold (0.397) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.397; GEX positive at 4.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $741.15 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.61
QQQ: $677.08 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.98
IWM: $293.46 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.56
VIX: 18.21 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.604%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$741.15	41.90	39.7	$740.61	Neutral	1.13
QQQ	$677.08	36.70	57.6	$677.98	Bearish	3.99
IWM	$293.46	44.00	0.0	$293.56	Bearish	2.43

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	18.21	59.23	40.4	$10.52	Neutral	0.72
TNX	46.04	61.67	17.7	-	-	-
GLD	$369.42	47.49	24.8	$371.67	Neutral	0.95
DXY	101.38	54.86	13.2	-	-	-
SLV	$51.66	44.89	13.0	$52.61	Neutral	0.96

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.397
DIX Signal: Selling pressure
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.99B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 72.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Health Care	90.6%	0/0
Real Estate	85.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	85.3%	0/0
Industrials	73.8%	0/0
Utilities	73.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	71.2%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Communication Services	55.0%	0/0
Technology	50.0%	0/0
Energy	36.8%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $79.13 (5d: -8.9%)
Brent Crude: $83.76 | Spread: $4.63
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $65.07/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.57
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.80

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.934	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.596	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.386	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.496	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,820,472.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,540,906.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $619.5B
Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $741.15)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.60%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
DXY: 101.38
Growth vs Value: 0.91
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.18% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,752B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,572B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,633 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $65.07/bbl (vs 20d avg 60.10, +1.8σ), floor $35.00/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.397) despite calm surface (VIX 18.2, breadth 73%).
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 — institutional demand weakening.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-OFF.
[INFO] Screener: KRG — promotion-ready (56d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1151)).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000

Earnings:

MSFT: EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META: EPS Est. $7.22 (↑0.3% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] TIOmarkets Launches Mobile Trading App for Forex & CFD Trading URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/tiomarkets-launches-mobile-trading-app-for-forex-cfd-trading-202607290958 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:58:22 GMT

[2] Canadian Dollar: BoC minutes watched for inflation tone - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-minutes-watched-for-inflation-tone-td-securities-202607290955 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:55:47 GMT

[3] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Eases from 0.8575 resistance with the bullish bias intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-gbp-price-forecast-eases-from-08575-resistance-with-the-bullish-bias-intact-202607290954 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:54:40 GMT

[4] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC steadies above key support as Fed rate decision looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-steadies-above-key-support-as-fed-rate-decision-looms-202607290951 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:51:07 GMT

[5] GBP/USD at month's lows: The outlook remains weak URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-at-months-lows-the-outlook-remains-weak-202607290948 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:48:20 GMT

[6] Euro: Seen back toward 1.15 against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-seen-back-toward-115-against-us-dollar-ing-202607290945 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:45:21 GMT

[7] Tensions simmer in Middle East with focus on FOMC rate decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/tensions-simmer-in-middle-east-with-focus-on-fomc-rate-decision-202607290944 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:44:56 GMT

[8] Swiss Franc: Policy gap favours further losses against Euro - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-policy-gap-favours-further-losses-against-euro-mufg-202607290934 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:34:06 GMT

[9] Germany 10-y Bond Auction up to 3.13% from previous 3.09% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-10-y-bond-auction-up-to-313-from-previous-309-202607290932 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:32:45 GMT

[10] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607290930 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:30:08 GMT

[11] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Near-term bias remains bearish ahead of Fed-BoE policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-near-term-bias-remains-bearish-ahead-of-fed-boe-policy-202607290929 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:29:21 GMT

[12] Dow Jones futures gain ahead of Fed policy decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-gain-ahead-of-fed-policy-decision-202607290929 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:29:05 GMT

[13] Australian Dollar: Softer inflation supports RBA pause - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-softer-inflation-supports-rba-pause-commerzbank-202607290916 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:16:26 GMT

[14] ECB's Patsalides: If higher oil prices persist, inflation risks rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-patsalides-if-higher-oil-prices-persist-inflation-risks-rise-202607290912 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:12:38 GMT

[15] Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) down to 0% in 2Q from previous 0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-gross-domestic-product-qoq-down-to-0-in-2q-from-previous-02-202607290900 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:00:00 GMT

[16] Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) dipped from previous 8.1% to 8% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-unemployment-rate-mom-dipped-from-previous-81-to-8-in-june-202607290859 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:59:39 GMT

[17] DXY 29/07 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dxy-29-07-202607290855 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:55:36 GMT

[18] Crypto holds firm despite tech sell-off URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-holds-firm-despite-tech-sell-off-202607290853 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:53:42 GMT

[19] Federal Reserve: Surprise risk keeps global rates elevated - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-surprise-risk-keeps-global-rates-elevated-ing-202607290852 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:52:19 GMT

[20] Swiss Franc remains depressed despite brightening ZEW Economic Expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-remains-depressed-despite-brightening-zew-economic-expectations-202607290845 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:45:54 GMT

[21] Equities: Record allocation sustains Dollar exposure - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-record-allocation-sustains-dollar-exposure-bny-202607290841 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:41:51 GMT

[22] IQVIA (IQV) Q2 earnings: Taking a look at key metrics versus estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iqvia-iqv-q2-earnings-taking-a-look-at-key-metrics-versus-estimates-202607290833 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:33:22 GMT

[23] United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) increased to 5% in June from previous 4.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-m4-money-supply-yoy-increased-to-5-in-june-from-previous-43-202607290831 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:31:40 GMT

[24] Australian Dollar: Softer inflation tempers rate hike odds - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-softer-inflation-tempers-rate-hike-odds-mufg-202607290831 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:31:10 GMT

[25] United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) above expectations (£5.5B) in June: Actual (£9.5B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-net-lending-to-individuals-mom-above-expectations-ps55b-in-june-actual-ps95b-202607290830 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:30:35 GMT

[26] United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above expectations (57.1K) in June: Actual (58.2K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals-above-expectations-571k-in-june-actual-582k-202607290830 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:30:08 GMT

[27] United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in June: Actual (0.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-m4-money-supply-mom-above-expectations-02-in-june-actual-08-202607290830 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:30:06 GMT

[28] United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.807B, above forecasts (£1.7B) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-credit-came-in-at-ps1807b-above-forecasts-ps17b-in-june-202607290830 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:30:06 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] China holds talks with Houthis over Red Sea tanker passage - Reuters Time: 2026-07-29T08:42:43.734Z

[2] US urges citizens in Iraq to remain vigilant over Iran-aligned attacks Time: 2026-07-29T08:39:13.471Z

[3] Israel says it destroyed underground Hezbollah base in south Lebanon Time: 2026-07-29T08:18:30.791Z

[4] Iran parliament prepares retaliation for UK designation of IRGC as terrorist group Time: 2026-07-29T07:58:26.209Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 151 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 16.7% of normal
Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 382
Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS387 (+674% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost