Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-29 02:01:31 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.397 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 73% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +2.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.93 normal, SPY/DXY -0.60 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 18.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.41 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 14 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF — DIX below threshold (0.397) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.397; GEX positive at 4.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $741.15 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.61
QQQ: $677.08 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.98
IWM: $293.46 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.56
VIX: 18.21 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.604%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$741.15	41.90	39.7	$740.61	Neutral	1.13
QQQ	$677.08	36.70	57.6	$677.98	Bearish	3.99
IWM	$293.46	44.00	0.0	$293.56	Bearish	2.43

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	18.21	59.23	40.4	$10.52	Neutral	0.72
TNX	46.04	61.67	17.7	-	-	-
GLD	$369.42	47.49	24.8	$371.67	Neutral	0.95
DXY	101.38	54.86	13.2	-	-	-
SLV	$51.66	44.89	13.0	$52.61	Neutral	0.96

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.397
DIX Signal: Selling pressure
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.99B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 72.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Health Care	90.6%	0/0
Real Estate	85.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	85.3%	0/0
Industrials	73.8%	0/0
Utilities	73.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	71.2%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Communication Services	55.0%	0/0
Technology	50.0%	0/0
Energy	36.8%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $79.13 (5d: -8.9%)
Brent Crude: $83.76 | Spread: $4.63
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $65.07/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.57
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.80

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.934	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.596	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.386	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.496	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,820,472.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,540,906.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $619.5B
Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $741.15)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.60%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
DXY: 101.38
Growth vs Value: 0.91
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.18% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,752B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,572B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,938 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $65.07/bbl (vs 20d avg 60.10, +1.8σ), floor $35.00/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.397) despite calm surface (VIX 18.2, breadth 73%).
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (86.99) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000

Earnings:

MSFT: EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META: EPS Est. $7.22 (↑0.3% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] Norway Retail Sales increased to 1.8% in June from previous -2.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-retail-sales-increased-to-18-in-june-from-previous-21-202607290600 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 06:00:31 GMT

[2] South Africa Private Sector Credit: 7.8% (June) vs previous 8.57% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-private-sector-credit-78-june-vs-previous-857-202607290600 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 06:00:30 GMT

[3] South Africa M3 Money Supply (YoY) declined to 9.31% in June from previous 9.59% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-m3-money-supply-yoy-declined-to-931-in-june-from-previous-959-202607290600 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 06:00:28 GMT

[4] KR-JP chip-related carnage continues, Mid-East gets kinetic again, JP earthquake fallout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/kr-jp-chip-related-carnage-continues-mid-east-gets-kinetic-again-jp-earthquake-fallout-202607290555 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:55:31 GMT

[5] Pi Network Price Forecast: Bullish RSI divergence adds to rebound odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-bullish-rsi-divergence-adds-to-rebound-odds-202607290554 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:54:34 GMT

[6] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near 0.6950 after soft CPI-driven breakdown URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-seems-vulnerable-near-06950-after-soft-cpi-driven-breakdown-202607290551 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:51:23 GMT

[7] South Korea plans stablecoin rules as opposition pushes crypto tax repeal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/south-korea-plans-stablecoin-rules-as-opposition-pushes-crypto-tax-repeal-202607290550 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:50:21 GMT

[8] Indonesian Rupiah gains as Fed uncertainty weighs on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-gains-as-fed-uncertainty-weighs-on-us-dollar-202607290548 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:48:23 GMT

[9] Iran's IRGC confirms striking US base in Jordan URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irgc-confirms-striking-us-base-in-jordan-202607290546 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:46:22 GMT

[10] Hyperliquid Price Forecast: ETF outflows deepen slide toward $50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hyperliquid-price-forecast-etf-outflows-deepen-slide-toward-50-202607290534 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:34:01 GMT

[11] Indian Rupee fails to extend winning streak as oil prices bounce back URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-fails-to-extend-winning-streak-as-oil-prices-bounce-back-202607290528 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:28:57 GMT

[12] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607290505 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:05:40 GMT

[13] New Zealand Dollar holds steady below 0.5900 vs USD as traders seem hesitant ahead of FOMC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-steady-below-05900-vs-usd-as-traders-seem-hesitant-ahead-of-fomc-202607290502 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:02:46 GMT

[14] Philippines Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607290500 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 05:00:53 GMT

[15] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607290456 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:56:24 GMT

[16] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607290447 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:47:31 GMT

[17] Gold consolidates near two-week low, holds above $4,000 as traders await FOMC decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-consolidates-near-two-week-low-holds-above-4-000-as-traders-await-fomc-decision-202607290437 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:37:22 GMT

[18] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607290436 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:36:34 GMT

[19] Pound Sterling Price News & Forecast: GBP/USD edges higher after remaining flat in the previous day URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-forecast-gbp-usd-edges-higher-after-remaining-flat-in-the-previous-day-202607290435 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:35:52 GMT

[20] British Pound gains ground as US Dollar struggles ahead of Fed decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-gains-ground-as-us-dollar-struggles-ahead-of-fed-decision-202607290431 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:31:00 GMT

[21] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607290430 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:30:08 GMT

[22] Morning briefing: EUR/USD may trade in the 1.1350-1.1420 region URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-eur-usd-may-trade-in-the-11350-11420-region-202607290407 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:07:03 GMT

[23] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, XRP & Ethereum - Asian Wrap 29 July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-xrp-ethereum-asian-wrap-29-july-202607290402 Published: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:02:52 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Bab el-Mandeb ship traffic rises as Hormuz remains subdued - Reuters Time: 2026-07-29T05:31:20.084Z

[2] Iran official says Oman's Hormuz proposal has no chance of success - Reuters Time: 2026-07-29T04:59:05.779Z

[BREAKING] [3] Jordan intercepts five Iranian missiles Time: 2026-07-29T04:46:35.455Z

[4] Body of Iranian pilot to be returned after attack on Qatar base, army says Time: 2026-07-29T04:17:45.288Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 151 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 16.7% of normal
Throughput: 16.7% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 120
Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost