Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 21:45:26 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.397 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 73% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +2.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.60 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 18.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.41 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 14 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF — DIX below threshold (0.397) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.397 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 4.0B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $741.15 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.61
QQQ: $677.08 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.98
IWM: $293.46 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.56
VIX: 18.21 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.604%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$741.15	41.90	39.7	$740.61	Neutral	1.13
QQQ	$677.08	36.70	57.6	$677.98	Bearish	3.99
IWM	$293.46	44.00	0.0	$293.56	Bearish	2.43

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	18.21	59.23	40.4	$10.52	Neutral	0.72
TNX	46.04	61.67	17.7	-	-	-
GLD	$369.42	47.49	24.8	$371.67	Neutral	0.95
DXY	101.38	54.86	13.2	-	-	-
SLV	$51.66	44.89	13.0	$52.61	Neutral	0.96

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.397
DIX Signal: Selling pressure
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.99B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 72.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Health Care	90.6%	0/0
Real Estate	85.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	85.3%	0/0
Industrials	73.8%	0/0
Utilities	73.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	71.2%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Communication Services	55.0%	0/0
Technology	50.0%	0/0
Energy	36.8%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $79.13 (5d: -8.9%)
Brent Crude: $83.76 | Spread: $4.63
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $65.07/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.57
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.80

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.919	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.596	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.393	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.485	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,820,472.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,540,906.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $619.5B
Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $741.15)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.60%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
DXY: 101.38
Growth vs Value: 0.91
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.18% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,752B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,572B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,888 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 — institutional demand weakening.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $65.07/bbl (vs 20d avg 59.58, +2.0σ), floor $35.00/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.397) despite calm surface (VIX 18.2, breadth 73%).
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-OFF.
[INFO] Screener: KRG — promotion-ready (56d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1151)).
[INFO] Screener: BRX — promotion-ready (56d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1151)).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (9):

[1] Japan's Yen sleeps through a regional equity crash URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-yen-sleeps-through-a-regional-equity-crash-202607282310 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 23:10:54 GMT

[2] The Australian Dollar sells a speech and waits for the number that decides August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-australian-dollar-sells-a-speech-and-waits-for-the-number-that-decides-august-202607282310 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 23:10:24 GMT

[3] The Euro finally gets cheaper energy, and that is the problem URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-euro-finally-gets-cheaper-energy-and-that-is-the-problem-202607282309 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 23:09:22 GMT

[4] British Pound Sterling waits on a forecast the tape has already outrun URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-waits-on-a-forecast-the-tape-has-already-outrun-202607282308 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 23:08:58 GMT

[5] Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH cools ahead of Fed rate decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-cools-ahead-of-fed-rate-decision-202607282256 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 22:56:31 GMT

[6] Indonesia: Policy focus after BI Governor exit - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-policy-focus-after-bi-governor-exit-dbs-202607282239 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 22:39:00 GMT

[7] Australia CPI could boost Aussie if inflation arrives above 4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-cpi-could-boost-aussie-if-inflation-arrives-above-4-202607282230 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 22:30:00 GMT

[8] Inflation pain is worse than the CPI indicates, but you already knew that URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/inflation-pain-is-worse-than-the-cpi-indicates-but-you-already-knew-that-202607282225 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 22:25:08 GMT

[9] With a struggling bond market and persistent inflation, investors are turning to tangible assets like Gold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/with-a-struggling-bond-market-and-persistent-inflation-investors-are-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-202607282222 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 22:22:56 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] US official says Iran launched fewer than four ballistic missiles - CNN Time: 2026-07-28T23:00:53.313Z

[2] Canada condemns executions of protesters in Iran Time: 2026-07-28T22:48:54.330Z

[3] Shutdown at Qatar's Ras Laffan gas facilities after unspecified incident Time: 2026-07-28T22:45:32.508Z

[4] Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces in Middle East - CENTCOM Time: 2026-07-28T22:29:03.337Z

[5] Iran launched ballistic missiles toward US base in Jordan - Axios Time: 2026-07-28T22:15:47.256Z

[6] Iran MP attacks former lawmaker over policy of 'endless war' agenda Time: 2026-07-28T22:00:34.644Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily — 8.3% of normal
Throughput: 8.0% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 382
Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost