Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 18:04:12 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.402 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 73% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.41 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 14 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: IFF, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 93 closed (hit rate 57%) Β· 128 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $741.15 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.61
- QQQ: $677.08 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.98
- IWM: $293.46 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.56
- VIX: 18.21 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.604%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $741.15 | 41.90 | 39.7 | $740.61 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| QQQ | $677.08 | 36.70 | 57.6 | $677.98 | Bearish | 3.99 |
| IWM | $293.46 | 44.00 | 0.0 | $293.56 | Bearish | 2.43 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.21 | 59.23 | 40.4 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| TNX | 46.04 | 61.67 | 17.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $369.42 | 47.49 | 24.8 | $371.67 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| DXY | 101.38 | 54.86 | 13.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.66 | 44.89 | 13.0 | $52.61 | Neutral | 0.96 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 72.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 90.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 85.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 73.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 71.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $79.13 (5d: -8.9%)
- Brent Crude: $83.76 | Spread: $4.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $65.07/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.57
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.80
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.919 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.595 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.392 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.483 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,820,472.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,540,906.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $619.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $742 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $741.15)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.60%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.38
- Growth vs Value: 0.91
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.18% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,752B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,572B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,855 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $65.07/bbl (vs 20d avg 59.58, +2.0Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.2, breadth 73%).
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: KRG β promotion-ready (56d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1151)).
- [INFO] Screener: BRX β promotion-ready (56d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1151)).
- [INFO] Screener: MCO β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 64/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 46% (n=156)).
- [INFO] Screener: HAS β promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 48% (n=44)).
- [INFO] Screener: RTX β promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 48% (n=44)).
- [INFO] Screener: VRT β promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 64/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2239)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.50%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Chile BCCH Interest Rate meets expectations (4.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chile-bcch-interest-rate-meets-expectations-45-202607282159 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:59:51 GMT
[2] Singapore Dollar: MAS tightening keeps pair under pressure - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-mas-tightening-keeps-pair-under-pressure-commerzbank-202607282152 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:52:00 GMT
[3] NZD/USD holds ahead of the Fed's decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-holds-ahead-of-the-feds-decision-202607282137 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:37:15 GMT
[4] Brazilian Real: BRL seen weaker into year-end - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-brl-seen-weaker-into-year-end-rabobank-202607282121 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:21:00 GMT
[5] Morgan Stanley debuts Ethereum and Solana ETPs with staking benefits URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/morgan-stanley-debuts-ethereum-and-solana-etps-with-staking-benefits-202607282102 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:02:03 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Kallas urges Iran to seize Persian Gulf reprieve, end support for Russia Time: 2026-07-28T21:37:09.675Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.0% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 382
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost