Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 12:14:25 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.402 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 73% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.60 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.43 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 14 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.81% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $741.56 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.89
- QQQ: $677.54 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $682.77
- IWM: $292.97 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.89
- VIX: 18.08 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.590%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $741.56 | 41.90 | 39.7 | $740.89 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| QQQ | $677.54 | 36.70 | 57.6 | $682.77 | Bearish | 3.02 |
| IWM | $292.97 | 44.00 | 0.0 | $293.89 | Bearish | 2.76 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.08 | 59.23 | 40.4 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| TNX | 45.90 | 61.67 | 17.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.00 | 47.49 | 24.8 | $371.69 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| DXY | 101.29 | 52.86 | 13.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.98 | 44.89 | 13.0 | $52.61 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.81% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 73.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.9%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 492
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 86.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 85.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 72.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 48.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $78.40 (5d: -9.7%)
- Brent Crude: $83.69 | Spread: $5.29
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.68/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.42
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.76
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.919 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.6 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.401 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.491 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,243,495.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,474,185.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $349.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $741.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.59%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.29
- Growth vs Value: 0.91
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.18% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,758B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,577B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,848 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $64.68/bbl (vs 20d avg 59.58, +1.9Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.1, breadth 73%).
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (741.13) reclaimed ZGL (740.91) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] SPY (740.75) dropped below ZGL (740.96) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.433 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.51%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23052.3 | Prev: 22804.5
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] WTI Price Forecast: Bears target the 200-day SMA after losing the $80 mark URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-bears-target-the-200-day-sma-after-losing-the-80-mark-202607281601 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 16:01:30 GMT
[2] US Dollar Index eases from tops, back to 101.30 ahead of Fed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-eases-from-tops-back-to-10130-ahead-of-fed-202607281557 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 15:57:16 GMT
[3] Euro skyrockets amid softer US confidence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-skyrockets-amid-softer-us-confidence-202607281544 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 15:44:03 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Pakistan sees signs of possible US ground offensive in Iran - DPA Time: 2026-07-28T15:29:23.919Z
[2] Iran says defense production stronger after attacks Time: 2026-07-28T15:01:17.960Z
[3] Amnesty urges world to take urgent action as Iran steps up protest executions Time: 2026-07-28T14:35:13.032Z
[4] Iran indicts Trump over Khamenei killing on charges carrying death penalty Time: 2026-07-28T14:17:54.267Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS145 (+190% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost