Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 11:15:07 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.402 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 71% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +1.8% stable Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.58 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 14 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 71% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.57 | 50 SMA $745.00 | 200 SMA $698.89 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.93
- QQQ: $672.88 | 50 SMA $717.64 | 200 SMA $643.56 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $682.87
- IWM: $291.53 | 50 SMA $291.40 | 200 SMA $264.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.21
- VIX: 18.57 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.608%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.57 | 41.90 | 39.7 | $740.93 | Bearish | 1.70 |
| QQQ | $672.88 | 36.70 | 57.6 | $682.87 | Bearish | 4.66 |
| IWM | $291.53 | 44.00 | 0.0 | $294.21 | Bearish | 4.05 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.57 | 59.23 | 40.4 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| TNX | 46.08 | 61.67 | 17.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $369.52 | 47.49 | 24.8 | $371.67 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| DXY | 101.42 | 55.83 | 13.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $51.63 | 44.89 | 13.0 | $39.00 | Neutral | 0.94 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 71.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 88.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 85.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 71.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 42.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.32 (5d: -6.3%)
- Brent Crude: $86.54 | Spread: $5.22
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.00/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.30
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.83
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.915 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.58 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.358 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.468 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,434,585.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,702,166.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $231.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.57)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.61%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.42
- Growth vs Value: 0.91
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.18% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,758B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,577B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,218 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.6, breadth 71%).
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] SPY (740.75) dropped below ZGL (740.96) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.433 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] SPY (738.95) reclaimed ZGL (738.49) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.48%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23052.3 | Prev: 22804.5
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] Oil: Weakens on deal hopes and fragile flows - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-weakens-on-deal-hopes-and-fragile-flows-ing-202607281508 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 15:08:09 GMT
[2] Warning signs in the stock market: Is this the top, or just a very short fuse? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warning-signs-in-the-stock-market-is-this-the-top-or-just-a-very-short-fuse-202607281504 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 15:04:44 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 17.0% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost